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A big week for monetary policy

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • The first ECB rate hike since the ill-fated tightening of 2011 expected on Thursday
  • Contrasting with the ECB, the BoJ Policy Board meeting is widely expected to see policy left unchanged
  • Data-wise, June CPI inflation figures are due from the euro area, UK and Japan

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UK GDP confounds gloomy expectations

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese Reuters Tankan signals subdued business conditions at start of Q3
  • BoF survey suggests steady French economic activity in June
  • Final June inflation data to confirm flash estimates, with German rates lowered by temporary policy measures but French inflation boosted by higher energy and food prices

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UK retail survey flags marked hit to discretionary spending

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese PPI data illustrate elevated pipeline price pressures
  • German ZEW investor survey likely to echo pessimism recorded in last week’s Sentix survey
  • US small business survey likely to report increased pessimism

 

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LDP wins clear majority in Japan’s Upper House election

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese machine orders fell in line with expectations in May, but remain on track for a sizeable increase in Q2
  • Chinese inflation beats expectations, but remains subdued
  • Euro area IP is likely to have remained subdued as supply constraints continue to hamper production; UK GDP set to have remained subdued in May

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Japanese household spending falls in May

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese household spending falls in May amid higher prices
  • Japanese economy watchers less upbeat about conditions
  • UK jobs survey suggests softest jobs growth for sixteen months 

 

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