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PMIs point to modest improvement

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • While the flash Japanese and Aussie PMIs posted a modest improvement in conditions in May, the surveys still imply an extreme drop in economic output in the middle of Q2. And we would expect the flash PMIs from Europe and the US to report a similar message.

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Japan capex outlook unsurprisingly weak

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • While Japanese machine orders data exceed expectations, the underlying message of that release, as well as the latest Reuters Tankan and overseas visitors data, was still downbeat. And after UK inflation fell below 1% for the first time since 2016, final euro area CPI figures are likely to bring a downwards revision in April.

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UK jobless claims surge

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • While yesterday's Franco-German proposal for the EU Commisson to support the recovery from the pandemic provided a boost to markets, this morning's UK labour market data reported the largest ever jump in jobless claims figures and a plunge in vacancies. 

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A broad-based drop in Japanese GDP

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • While markets have started the week in upbeat mood, data confirmed a second consecutive substantive and broad-based contraction in Japanese GDP in Q1. Of course, the current quarter will be far worse!

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China's demand shock persists

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • China’s April economic activity data highlighted that the demand shock from Covid-19 is harder to shake off than the hit to the supply-side. Japan’s producer price data added to the evidence that the crisis has renewed deflationary risks.

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