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ECB’s updated policy guidance should be relatively dovish

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • French business confidence indices remain elevated. 
  • BoE’s Broadbent to give a clue as to balance of views on the MPC with speech.
  • US data flow resumes with existing home sales, the leading index, the Kansas Fed’s manufacturing survey and jobless claims due.

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Japanese merchandise exports and imports advance

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • UK public borrowing continues to run below OBR forecast.
  • Aussie retail sales fall 1.8%M/M in June as lockdowns weigh.

 

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German PPI the highest since 1982

Chris Scicluna
  • Japan’s national CPI provides no surprises.
  • PBoC leaves its benchmark 1Y and 5Y prime loans rates steady.
  • Aussie consumer confidence takes a hit as lockdowns weigh; Victoria extends lockdown for 7 days and South Australia also announces a 7-day lockdown from today.

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ECB to revise forward guidance on Thursday

Chris Scicluna
  • BoJ survey points to weaker business loan demand; national CPI and merchandise trade data the focus in a holiday-shortened week ahead.
  • PBoC likely to announce unchanged benchmark lending rates.
  • ECB to revise forward guidance on Thursday most likely with a dovish emphasis.

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BoJ leaves policy settings steady

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ leaves policy settings steady; makes predictable near-term revisions to growth and inflation forecasts but medium-term outlook unchanged.
  • Kiwi CPI rises 1.3%Q/Q in Q2, almost double expectations, lifting annual inflation to 3.3%Y/Y.
  • Kiwi manufacturing PMI rises in June, led by an increase in the employment index.

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