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All eyes on Trump's retaliatory tariffs

31 March 2025

Emily Nicol
  • While President Trump's retaliatory tariffs announcement on Wednesday will dominate the news flow, the week ahead also brings plenty of top-tier economic data, including US payrolls, ISM sentiment indices, BoJ Tankan survey and flash euro area inflation. 

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Sentiment surveys and inflation in focus

24 March 2025

Emily Nicol

  • After today’s flash PMIs, various sentiment surveys are likely to suggest that economic conditions remain decidedly mixed, while various inflation data from the major economies are also due.

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BoJ, Fed & BoE to leave rates unchanged

17 March 2025

Emily Nicol

* The BoJ, Fed and BoE will remain patient in the current uncertain economic environment and leave policy rates unchanged. The Fed's dot plots will be closely watched, while Japanese CPI and UK labour market figures, as well as Japanese and euro area trade data are also due. 

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Inflation & wage data in focus

10 March 2025

Emily Nicol
  • Ahead of the Fed's policy decision on 19 March, US price data will be in focus this week, with the headline and core CPI rates expected to moderate slightly, with the latter matching the lowest since March 2021. 
  • The ECB's wage trackers will likely point to a steady moderation in pay growth, while Japan's Rengo union confederation will likely announce another strong increase in iits first estimate of this year's spring wage settlement. 

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US CPI report & Fed Chair Powell's testimony in focus

10 February 2025

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • All eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual Congressional testimony as well as the January CPI and PPI inflation data.
  • In the UK, after the BoE last week halved its economic growth forecast for this year GDP figures for Q4 and December will further highlight the flat-lining of economic activity since the spring. The week also brings speeches from MPC members including Governor Bailey and external member Mann, with the latter notably having pivoted from her previous status of uber-hawk to voting last week for a cut of 50bps

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