London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2026

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    11 September 2026 487 KB PDF
    • While comments from ECB policymakers underscored the strong probability of further policy tightening, shorter-dated Bunds made gains as oil prices fell back.
    • Despite an upside surprise to UK GDP in July, shorter-dated Gilts also made gains while a BoE household survey reported a moderation in inflation expectations. 
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    11 September 2026 381 KB PDF
    • FOMC preview: firm underlying inflation paves the way for a hike next week
    • Summary of Economic Projections: expect modest changes to inflation and rates outlooks
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    10 September 2026 272 KB PDF
    • Bunds made significant losses as wholesale energy prices surged and the ECB’s updated macroeconomic projections pointed to the strong likelihood of additional policy tightening to come after today’s unanimous rate hike.
    • As expectations for a future BoE rate hike increased, Gilts underperformed with 2Y yields at a near-3-year high and 10Y yields reaching the loftiest level since 2007.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    8 September 2026 322 KB PDF
    • While Germany’s goods trade surplus rose to a two-year high in July, Bunds closed slightly higher as Brent Crude oil edged away from $100/bbl.
    • Shorter-dated Gilts made modest losses as BoE policymakers acknowledged the upside risks to the inflation outlook but did not signal any imminent plans to tighten policy.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    7 September 2026 304 KB PDF
    • Bunds weakened despite a sharp drop in German manufacturing output in July and a moderation in euro area wage growth, with markets focused instead on the far-right AfD’s victory in the Saxony-Anhalt election.
    • While UK Chancellor Healey signalled that his Budget in October would emphasise fiscal restraint, Gilts also made losses.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    4 September 2026 627 KB PDF
    • Bunds ended the day little changed as weak euro area retail sales data were offset by a further strong rise in German factory orders.
    • Gilts followed USTs lower after a BoE survey showed a modest uptick in firms’ inflation expectations, although price- and wage-setting behaviour appeared to remain broadly stable.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    4 September 2026 390 KB PDF
    • August employment: payrolls above expectations; unemployment low; indicative of a fully employed economy
    • A September rate hike: it comes down to next week’s CPI
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    3 September 2026 328 KB PDF
    • Despite stronger-than-expected euro area producer prices and final August PMIs consistent with solid expansion in Q3, Bunds followed USTs higher.
    • While BoE Chief Economist Pill’s renewed call for a rate hike, Gilts outperformed as the final UK PMIs continued to signal subdued demand.