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Daiwa's Economic View - Key points for March BoJ meeting
12 March 2026
556 KB
PDF
BoJ is likely to decide to maintain current monetary policy at March meeting
The focus will be on how well BOJ can maintain expectations for rate hikes considering situation in the Middle East
When it comes to upside and downside risks to underlying inflation posed by the Middle East situation, we think BOJ should place more emphasis on upside risks
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Daiwa’s View - Implications of Iran War for BOJ’s monetary policy: Emergency responses during a time of yen depreciation and a test of its strategy of continuing with rate hikes
11 March 2026
416 KB
PDF
Iran war occurring during yen depreciation heightens rationale for postponing rate hikes in the short term and increases risk of falling behind the curve in the medium to long term
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Daiwa’s Economic View - Key points surrounding underlying inflation: High oil prices and household resilience
11 March 2026
505 KB
PDF
High crude oil prices may lead to negative real wage growth in latter half of 2026
Two purchasing power sources (residual excess savings, increased net financial assets) to mitigate supply shocks
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Daiwa Memorandum - International Transactions in Securities (Feb 2026)
10 March 2026
604 KB
PDF
Japanese investors were significant net sellers of foreign bonds
In particular, sales of long-term bonds by depository institutions made a large negative contribution
Foreign investors were net buyers of domestic assets for the second consecutive month
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Daiwa's View - Factors behind the rise in US yields and the importance of Japan's rate hike expectations
6 March 2026
458 KB
PDF
US yields rose sharply by nearly 20bp in one week
Factors behind high price of resources have greater impact than factors behind uncertainty; labor market should be monitored in the long term
In Japan, rate hike expectations bring stability to the market and macroeconomy
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Daiwa’s Economic View - Considering increased expenditures in FY26 supplementary budget due to surging crude oil prices
6 March 2026
453 KB
PDF
Geopolitical shocks push up crude oil prices (temporary or persistent?)
Fiscal expenditures for FY26 if WTI price stabilizes at $70/bbl
Fiscal expenditures for FY26 if WTI prices remain elevated at $100/bbl
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Daiwa's Economic View - Cost pass-throughs set to continue
4 March 2026
513 KB
PDF
Food price inflation has peaked but set to remain elevated
Surging crude oil price could re-emerge as upside risk to inflation
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Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Deputy Governor Himino’s speech: March rate hike highly unlikely, but leaves room for April hike
3 March 2026
537 KB
PDF
No groundwork was laid for a March rate hike
Focus on information from hearings could leave room for a rate hike in April
Two new uncertainties and communication with the government are constraints
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