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Daiwa's Economic View - Analysis of BoJ ahead of 2025
16 December 2024
522 KB
PDF
BoJ in 2024: Implemented two interest rate hikes without delay; Trauma of summer 2024 market turmoil one reason why BoJ in no hurry to hike rates
Developments outside of Japan in 2024: US economy remains resilient; Prepare for market trend changes due to “Trump 2.0”
BoJ communicating more carefully, focus in Japan on wage hike sustainability
BoJ likely to skip rate hike in Dec, target hike in Jan-Mar 2025, while monitoring conditions in US
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Economic Commentary - Tankan analysis ahead of BoJ meeting
13 December 2024
558 KB
PDF
B0J is communicating carefully; Some support a Dec rate hike, but the bank staff are in no hurry and likely to hold off
BoJ considering a rate hike within FY24, but has yet to settle on timing
Tankan supports BoJ's view that domestic economy is on track No change in inflation expectations, companies continue passing on higher prices
Business sentiment better than expected; recurring profit has also improved from the last survey
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Daiwa's View - Will there be a resurgence of speculative selling of the yen?
11 December 2024
424 KB
PDF
A substantial decline in volatility would be necessary
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Daiwa's View - Timing of next BoJ rate hike
11 December 2024
329 KB
PDF
Despite having free hand until March, main scenario is for January 2025 rate hike
BoJ must consider (a) avoiding head-on collision with the Fed, (b) restraining yen carry trades, and (c) timing of July Upper House election and its impact on formation of expectations for rate hike after next rate hike
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Economic Commentary - Is December BoJ meeting outcome already determined?
10 December 2024
471 KB
PDF
Sharp decline in market expectations for Dec rate hike (direction BOJ wanted) More information from BOJ by time of Jan 2025 meeting (incl. speech by BOJ Deputy Governor Himino) BOJ may even postpone rate hike until Mar 2025 if it wants to avoid hasty decisions about “Trump risks”
Japan’s GDP revised, “recovery centered on domestic demand” assessment unchanged Focus points for Dec Tankan: Price-setting behaviors and recurring profit forecasts
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Economic Commentary - Analysing Governor Ueda's interview
2 December 2024
486 KB
PDF
BOJ communicating carefully ahead of Dec MPM
BOJ to publish broad-based review in Dec; no fixed relationship between forex and policy; hopes for economic momentum under 2% inflation regime
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Public Finance Watch
2 December 2024
420 KB
PDF
Supplementary budget for FY24 approved by Cabinet and JGB issuance plan was revised
Once overall image is set, breakdown of calendar-based market issuance amount will be significantly revised from April 2025
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Daiwa's Economic View - Outlook for Japan's economy, policy rate
26 November 2024
522 KB
PDF
Japan’s economy continues to gradually recover, due in large part to domestic demand
Expect gradual passing on of wage hikes to goods prices
BoJ’s phase for assessing overseas economies continues; expect next rate hike in Jan-Mar 2025 provided US economy remains strong
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