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2025
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Daiwa's View - Fiscal capacity and JGB market
11 November 2025
579 KB
PDF
Fiscal capacity from perspective of Domar condition; importance of achieving primary balance surplus
Economic stimulus package of around Y10tn would have only limited impact on JGB market
Risk of 10-year JGB yield topping 2%
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FX Pulse - Gradual increase in reflationary tone under the Takaichi administration
10 November 2025
373 KB
PDF
Appointing a succession of reflationists to government-related councils
If more reflationists are appointed as BOJ policy board members, it could lead to a weaker yen
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Daiwa's Economic View - Oct “Summary of Opinions”: BOJ policy board members focusing on initial response from spring wage negotiations
10 November 2025
516 KB
PDF
Economic perceptions improving, tariff uncertainty declining
Prices on track, but wage assessments still a priority
Policy board members’ views largely in line with those held by BOJ Gov Ueda, but inclination toward hiking rates is growing
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Daiwa's Economic View - Does initial momentum of Shunto still need great caution?
7 November 2025
532 KB
PDF
Shunto results are heavily weighted toward large firms and manufacturing sector
Shunto importance diminishing with robust domestic earnings and progress on establishment of wage hike norm
Concern is whether wage hikes will extend to regional areas and SMEs
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Daiwa's View - Scenarios in which defence spending is raised to 5% of GDP: Two points of divergence
7 November 2025
794 KB
PDF
Stabilizing the debt ratio requires maintaining the current GDP benchmark and ratio of domestic production
Expanded imports would exert upward pressure on superlong yields, while maintaining ratio of domestic production would put upward pressure on short- to medium-term yields
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Daiwa's View - Impact of fiscal policy and QT on JGB term premium
5 November 2025
844 KB
PDF
Launch of Takaichi administration and JGB term premium
Term premium is influenced by fiscal policy “stock” variables and QE/QT “flow” variables
1% deterioration in ratio of outstanding JGBs to GDP raises term premium by 1bp
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FX Pulse - Return of the yen carry trade?
4 November 2025
652 KB
PDF
Yen’s slide accelerates on dovish view of BOJ MPM
FX markets to test Takaichi government's tolerance for weaker yen?
Government should allow BOJ discretion to act
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Daiwa's View - BOJ Outlook Report signals possible turning point
31 October 2025
871 KB
PDF
Governor Ueda’s press conference raised possibility of Jan rate hike
Outlook Report changes suggest risk of slowdown for BOJ’s rate hiking pace
1% terminal rate scenario entails significant room for super-long JGB yields to decline
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