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2025

2024

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  • Daiwa's Economic View - Will tariff policies bring stagflation to Japan?

    Daiwa's Economic View - Will tariff policies bring stagflation to Japan?

    5 March 2025 474 KB PDF
    • Focusing on impact on Japanese economy of tariff policies, and economic trends in US and China
    • Japan's real GDP may be pushed down by about 0.4%; Tariff policies serve as upside risk for inflation in Japan
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Outlook for Japan's economy, policy rate (Feb-25)

    Daiwa's Economic View - Outlook for Japan's economy, policy rate (Feb-25)

    27 February 2025 571 KB PDF
    • Japan’s economy picking up, mainly due to domestic demand, but concerns about Trump impact
    • Prices expected to remain high until mid-2025; on guard for higher-than-expected prices 
    • Expect next rate hike in July; 1% terminal rate?
  • Economic Commentary - BoJ's Tamura: neutral interest rate at least around 1%

    Economic Commentary - BoJ's Tamura: neutral interest rate at least around 1%

    7 February 2025 542 KB PDF
    • 10yr JGB yield has risen over two weeks since BOJ hike rate at Jan meeting
    • Neutral interest rate at least around 1%; not fully factored in by market
    • Assessing upside price risks; pursuing timely, gradual rate hikes
    • Broad-perspective review; negative stance toward effects of unconventional monetary policy measures
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BoJ decides to hike rates; see roughly six-month hiking pace

    Daiwa's Economic View - BoJ decides to hike rates; see roughly six-month hiking pace

    24 January 2025 614 KB PDF
    • No major market turmoil after Trump’s inauguration speech, BOJ decides to again hike rates
    • January statement clearly conveys intent to keep adjusting degree of monetary easing
    • January Outlook Report: Expects to maintain around 2% inflation for second half of projection period. Significant upward revision for prices; risk of higher-than-expected prices in US
  • Economic Commentary - BoJ Himino’s speech; rate hike talks after Trump’s inauguration speech likely

    Economic Commentary - BoJ Himino’s speech; rate hike talks after Trump’s inauguration speech likely

    15 January 2025 491 KB PDF
    • Long-term JGB yield rise originating from US continues; US rate cut expectations receding
    • BoJ may revise upward core-core CPI forecast in January Outlook Report
    • Himino’s speech; BoJ to discuss January rate hike, but expect cautious decision
    • Focus on risk of falling “behind the curve”; BoJ to assess Trump’s inauguration speech and subsequent market trends
  • Daiwa's View - Strategist’s perspective of a possible BoJ rate hike in January

    Daiwa's View - Strategist’s perspective of a possible BoJ rate hike in January

    14 January 2025 456 KB PDF
    • Costs for both raising and not raising rates; costs for latter gradually increasing
    • From risk-reward perspective, January rate hike is most promising option (unless sharp risk asset drop that completely changes perception of financial conditions)
  • Economic Commentary - Considering market trends at start of 2025

    Economic Commentary - Considering market trends at start of 2025

    10 January 2025 490 KB PDF
    • Higher yields at start of 2025 originating from US, Japan remains calm; BOJ assessing policy management of the new US administration and resulting market trends
    • BOJ branch managers’ meeting report: Spreading recognition that continuous wage hikes needed
    • Output gap, potential growth rate expected to gradually increase
    • November wages on track, but real wages yet to turn positive
  • Daiwa's View - Will global turmoil make the BoJ more cautious?

    Daiwa's View - Will global turmoil make the BoJ more cautious?

    7 January 2025 352 KB PDF
    • Political conditions becoming more chaotic worldwide; wave of change ahead of next Trump administration
    • Confusion involving externals is reason for BOJ to be cautious, but not hiking rates entails some costs