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Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ’s Summary of Opinions from Sep meeting: Board member balance tilting toward hiking rates
1 October 2025
547 KB
PDF
Economic developments: Emphasis on assessing state of US economy
Prices: Growing concerns about upside risks
Next rate hike expected in Oct-Dec 2025, followed by another in Jul-Sep 2026
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Daiwa's View - Benefits vs costs of waiting: Re-examining December rate-hike argument
1 October 2025
367 KB
PDF
Building momentum for Oct rate hike; want to maintain balanced perspective by deliberately examining benefits of waiting until Dec
While Dec argument has at least five benefits, none are decisive in this case
High likelihood of additional rate hike (to 0.75%) decided at Oct MPM provided upbeat Tankan, hearings; additional speech by BOJ Deputy Gov Himino announced on 30 Sep (slated for 21 Oct) likely another step toward improving BOJ communication regarding interest rate hikes
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Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Tankan September survey: Uncertainty eases
1 October 2025
525 KB
PDF
Major improvement in corporate sentiment/earnings
Strong capex appetite, uncertainty easing
Inflation also more likely to reach 2% target
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Daiwa's Economic View - LDP presidential election: Koizumi still leading despite revelation that his camp asked for favorable comments online
29 September 2025
397 KB
PDF
Weekend polls showed Koizumi's lead remains unchanged
Revelation that Koizumi’s camp asked for favorable comments has not altered overall situation
Outlook regarding impact on JGB market also remains unchanged
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Economic Commentary - September Tokyo CPI: Weaker-than expected on free daycare impact
26 September 2025
484 KB
PDF
Roughly 0.3% drag on headline CPI from free daycare for children
Food prices in line with BOJ’s expectations
Does not warrant further rate hike acceleration, but upside price risks persist
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Daiwa's Economic View - LDP leadership race: Koizumi seems to be holding lead even after early debates
25 September 2025
404 KB
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Koizumi tops survey of LDP Diet members; made it through early debates without incident
Fiscal policy: All candidates (including most fiscal expansionary candidate Takaichi) oppose consumption tax cuts
Koizumi somewhat cautious about forming coalition with opposition parties; we need to monitor future developments
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Daiwa's View - Will overlapping Fed and BOJ meetings and domestic political situation constrain rate hike by BOJ?
24 September 2025
343 KB
PDF
An additional "risk management" rate cut by the Fed and the new administration's expansionary fiscal policy will serve as factors in mitigating downside risks for US and Japanese economies
This will be a tailwind for the BOJ, which has been on a short pause from rate hikes due to concerns about downside economic risks
Neither overlapping central bank meetings nor domestic political situation is expected to be a decisive constraint on raising rates in Oct
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Daiwa's Economic View - Koizumi has advantage over Takaichi in LDP presidential election
22 September 2025
405 KB
PDF
NTV survey for LDP party members shows Koizumi in the lead, making difficulties for Takaichi who needs to secure a majority of party member votes to win
While Koizumi aims to tackle inflation in consideration of fiscal policy discipline, he intends to accept BOJ's normalization in monetary policy
Takaichi’s fiscal policy cannot be considered extremely expansionary
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