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Daiwa's Economic View - What changing price/income elasticity imply about tipping point for tariff impact
18 July 2025
641 KB
PDF
Potential for prolonged tariffs, changes in automakers' behavior
Price elasticity of Japan’s US export volume down, income elasticity up
Factors behind falling price elasticity: shift to higher value added, changes in corporate behavior
Lower price elasticity mitigates tariff shock; risk is US recession
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Daiwa's View - JGB yields surge on momentum for fiscal expansionists
15 July 2025
689 KB
PDF
Latest opinion polls clearly show that ruling parties in danger of losing their majority; super-long JGB yields surged roughly 10bp
With fiscal expansionist parties (DPP, Sanseito) gaining ground, JGB market pricing in retreat from fiscal discipline
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Economic Commentary - Opinion Survey: Interpreting underlying inflation rates and consumer sentiment
14 July 2025
525 KB
PDF
Inflation putting pressure on livelihoods amid rising household inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment is deteriorating, but that might not be factoring in decline in rice prices
FY25 price projection at Jul BOJ MPM expected to be raised, but economic projection will likely be lowered
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Daiwa's Economic View - Ruling LDP/Komeito could expand coalition after Upper House election
11 July 2025
452 KB
PDF
Expanded coalition possible if LDP/Komeito fail to secure majority in Upper House
DPP, other parties seen as potential new coalition partners according to media reports, others
Upward pressure on JGB yields may increase, but focus to then shift to effectiveness of policies vs election pledges
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Daiwa's View - USD-denominated super-long JGB yields
10 July 2025
425 KB
PDF
Super-long JGB yields rose significantly to around 3.0%, but generally valued as fair from global balance perspective
Meanwhile, BOJ’s low policy interest rate stands out globally, making carry & roll-down returns on super-long JGBs very attractive
Once market volatility subsides, both domestic and foreign investors likely to focus more on this investment appeal
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Daiwa's Economic View - LDP/Komeito may lose Upper House majority; possible upward pressure on JGB yields due to additional coalition partner(s)
10 July 2025
476 KB
PDF
Likely to consider expanded coalition after election
LDP/Komeito + DPP as one coalition option; expect upward pressure on JGB yields for now
Focus on (1) whether DPP will reconsider its fiscal stimulus pledge in light of media reports of “Japanese version of Truss shock” and (2) possible LDP/Komeito + Japan Innovation Party coalition
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Daiwa's Economic View - Japanese economy under Trump tariffs: Status and outlook (1)
10 July 2025
513 KB
PDF
Japan's economy remains upbeat, but tariff impact could emerge
Balance of economic risks skews sharply to downside
New Trump tariffs would depress Japan's real GDP by around 1.1pp
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Daiwa's View - Surge in 30Y JGB yield, and interview with BOJ policy board member Koeda
9 July 2025
812 KB
PDF
30Y JGB yield hit record high on compound basis
Dip-buying predominant with US yields
In the first solo interview with BOJ policy board member Junko Koeda since her appointment, she comments that food prices have risen more than expected, and that the BOJ is closely monitoring impact on underlying inflation
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