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2025
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Economic Commentary - BoJ Himino’s speech; rate hike talks after Trump’s inauguration speech likely
15 January 2025
491 KB
PDF
Long-term JGB yield rise originating from US continues; US rate cut expectations receding
BoJ may revise upward core-core CPI forecast in January Outlook Report
Himino’s speech; BoJ to discuss January rate hike, but expect cautious decision
Focus on risk of falling “behind the curve”; BoJ to assess Trump’s inauguration speech and subsequent market trends
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Daiwa's View - Strategist’s perspective of a possible BoJ rate hike in January
14 January 2025
456 KB
PDF
Costs for both raising and not raising rates; costs for latter gradually increasing
From risk-reward perspective, January rate hike is most promising option (unless sharp risk asset drop that completely changes perception of financial conditions)
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Economic Commentary - Considering market trends at start of 2025
10 January 2025
490 KB
PDF
Higher yields at start of 2025 originating from US, Japan remains calm; BOJ assessing policy management of the new US administration and resulting market trends
BOJ branch managers’ meeting report: Spreading recognition that continuous wage hikes needed
Output gap, potential growth rate expected to gradually increase
November wages on track, but real wages yet to turn positive
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Daiwa's View - Will global turmoil make the BoJ more cautious?
7 January 2025
352 KB
PDF
Political conditions becoming more chaotic worldwide; wave of change ahead of next Trump administration
Confusion involving externals is reason for BOJ to be cautious, but not hiking rates entails some costs
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Economic Commentary - Bracing for 2025
6 January 2025
489 KB
PDF
“Trump 2.0” impacts as main theme for 2025
Major focus in Japan is how many more interest rate hikes are possible
BOJ can explore rate hikes in 2025 if US economy remains firm
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Daiwa's View - Initial thoughts on BoJ Finances
27 December 2024
503 KB
PDF
BOJ releases latest simulations for its balance sheet, financial position, and currency confidence
Adding current terminal rate assumed by market to long/short-term yield spread of +0.25 to +0.75ppt, expect 10yr JGB yield range of 1.0% to 1.5% for now
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Economic Commentary - Ueda speaks at Keidanren
26 December 2024
606 KB
PDF
Steady progress toward achieving “price stability target” in 2024
Now monitoring economic policies of next US administration, spring 2025 labor-management wage talks
Wage hikes to take hold, BOJ to continue raising interest rates in 2025
Positive corporate behavior and realization of 2% price target will lead to increase in Japan’s growth potential
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Daiwa's Economic View - Ueda’s Dec press conference
20 December 2024
448 KB
PDF
Need to assess wages, US economy as reason for not hiking rates in Dec
Full picture for spring labor-management talks in Mar or April, can potentially grasp wage momentum even earlier
BOJ exploring possibility of raising rates within FY24, but has not decided on timing
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