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German and French consumer confidence slump

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese labour market numbers reported a modest improvement in February, with the unemployment rate edging lower and the job-to-applicant ratio edging higher.
  • UK bank lending numbers likely to report a modest pickup in consumer credit growth in February as Covid-related restrictions relaxed.

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BoJ conducts unlimited fixed-rate purchase operation

Emily Nicol
  • Japanese data-flow this week set to bring soft retail numbers and a relatively subdued BoJ Tankan survey at the end of the week.
  • Flash estimate of euro area inflation expected to show headline HICP rate up 0.9ppt to a new record-high 6.8%Y/Y in March.
  • A busy week for US data with Friday’s labour market report the highlight and expected to show another strong increase in payrolls.

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UK inflation rises to 30-year high

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • UK Chancellor Sunak expected to offer some modest fiscal giveaways to lessen the impact of rising energy bills.
  • BoJ estimates suggest that Japan’s price pressures are broadening.
  • Euro area consumer confidence set to fall to its lowest level in more than a year; US new home sales figures to be boosted by prospect of higher mortgage rates.

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Euro area surveys to illustrate hit to confidence after Ukraine invasion

Emily Nicol
  • German PPI data confirmed the headline rate at a new series high.
  • The flash euro area PMIs will provide an update on business conditions in March and shed some light on the initial impact of the Ukraine war on sentiment.
  • UK inflation set to rise significantly higher in February; UK retail sales are also likely to have risen further that month even as consumer confidence fell further.
  • Plenty of FOMC members in action this week.

 

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Fed raises target range for the FFR

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Despite marked deterioration in the near-term UK inflation outlook and support among several members last month for a larger hike, on balance the BoE’s MPC likely to raise Bank Rate by 25bps.
  • Data-wise, Japanese machine orders fall back in January, but still point to modest capex growth for now; euro area car sales remain in reverse as supply constraints persist.

 

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