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German factory orders point to another weak month for manufacturing

08 January 2024

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • The European Commission’s business survey is likely to signal ongoing lacklustre economic momentum at the end of 2023, while euro area retail sales are likely to have fallen sharply in November.
  • In the UK, the latest monthly GDP figures (due Friday) are expected to report a return to positive growth in November.
  • In the US, the key focus will be December’s CPI report (Thursday), with the annual headline inflation rate expected to tick slightly higher.
  • In Japan, Tokyo CPI inflation is forecast to decline for a second successive month in November.

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Fed, ECB and BoE expected to leave interest rates unchanged

11 December 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • US CPI inflation is expected to edge slightly lower in November on weaker gasoline prices
  • UK labour market figures should report a notable slowing of momentum in wage growth, while GDP should post a third consecutive monthly increase
  • In Japan, the Q4 Tankan survey will be closely watched for recent economic momentum and developments in firms’ inflation expectations
  • Friday brings the flash PMI surveys for December

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Inflation data in focus this week

13 November 2023

Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s producer price inflation fell sharply in October to its lowest since February 2021
  • In the euro area, updated Q3 GDP data are expected to confirm a modest contraction. Friday will  bring revised euro area inflation figures for October.
  • In the UK, October’s CPI inflation release is expected to report a marked drop in headline inflation due to a sharp drop in energy inflation.

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German factory orders beat expectations

06 November 2023

Emily Nicol
  • Euro area retail sales figures for September will offer more insight into household consumption in Q3.
  • In the UK, the main event this week will be Friday’s release of Q3 GDP data, which are likely to confirm a slight contraction of 0.1%Q/Q.
  • In Japan, a key focus will be the release of September’s wage figures, which will likely leave total wage growth well below the rate agreed in this year’s spring wage negations.

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ECB highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged

23 October 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • The ECB monetary policy meeting seems bound to leave rates unchanged on Thursday.
  • US Q3 GDP growth is bound to be strong (circa 4½%Q/Q ann.)
  • Flash October PMIs are likely to remain consistent with contraction in both the euro area and UK.
  • In Japan, Tokyo CPI will be the most notable data of the week, with the BoJ’s preferred measure of core inflation expected to have eased 0.2ppt to 3.7%Y/Y.

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