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Russia launches full-blown invasion of Ukraine

24 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Price of Brent crude oil currently up more than 6% on the day to around $103bbl, highest since 2014.
  • Irish central bank governor Makhlouf states that ECB may still announce end to net asset purchases next month, with those purchases possibly brought to an end in Q2 (which seems too soon to us) or Q3.
  • US GDP growth in Q4 set to be revised up.

 

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UK government surplus misses forecasts

22 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UK government fiscal surplus in January misses forecasts but cumulative net borrowing in FY21/22 so far continues to significantly undershoot expectations, giving scope for relaxation of fiscal stance ahead.
  • February ifo business survey results this morning likely to add to evidence of a pickup in German economic activity in the middle of Q1; final Italian inflation figures to confirm big pressures at the start of the year due not least to increased household energy bills.

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Japan’s flash PMIs signal sharp contraction in economic output

21 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • German producer price inflation up to new high of 25.0%Y/Y in January.
  • Euro area sentiment surveys likely to point to some stabilisation in economic activity this month; Friday brings the first flash February CPI estimate from France. 
  • Focus will also be on appearances from various ECB and BoE policy board members.
  • In the US, an upwards revision will be made to Q4 GDP growth on Thursday, and January spending and income numbers and the PCE deflators, as well as durable goods numbers, will be watched on Friday.

 

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Japanese inflation drops further than expected

18 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UK retail sales in January reverse less than half of December’s drop to suggest ongoing loss of spending momentum into New Year.
  • French unemployment drops sharply towards year-end; flash French inflation figures for January confirmed with rates well below those elsewhere in Europe.

 

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Japan’s trade deficit widens to an 8-year high

17 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese machine orders data for December beat expectations but survey’s Q1 forecast disappoints.
  • EU new car registrations fall a dissapointing 6.0%Y/Y (down 6.9%Y/Y in the euro area) in January weighed by France and Italy.

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