Recent Blogs

FILTER POSTS

Category

Archive

TLTROs: Never Mind the Placebo

The ECB’s TLTRO programme begins next month. While the funding should allow banks to refinance more cheaply, is it really much more than a placebo for the euro area’s economic ills?

Categories : 

Euro area outlook: Firmer growth, subdued inflation

Our latest economic forecast shows a gradual strengthening of euro area GDP growth over coming quarters, as well as a narrowing of growth differentials between the major economies. This should help to keep deflation at bay. But it will not suffice to push inflation significantly higher either: CPI will remain some way below the ECB’s target over the coming two years. And, of course, the risks are skewed to the downside. 

Categories : 

Sizing up the ECB’s policy package

Three weeks ago, the ECB announced several new measures to ease financial conditions, boost bank lending, push inflation higher and support the euro area’s feeble recovery. But have they had any meaningful effects so far? 

Categories : 

Comfortable Easing Ahead for the ECB

Following Draghi’s surprise announcement at his last press conference that the Governing Council was “comfortable with acting next time”, the main question around this week’s Governing Council meeting is not if there will be action, but what form that action will take...

Categories : 

The ECB waiting game

Robert Kuenzel; Chris Scicluna

Given the ECB’s aim to keep inflation “close to, but below, 2%” over the medium term, and with Draghi and his colleagues having repeatedly pledged to guard against a prolonged period of excessively low inflation, the steeper-than-expected decline in euro area CPI to a 4½-year low of 0.5%Y/Y in March and the weak April flash CPI estimate arguably demand a policy response. But when it meets tomorrow, the Governing Council looks to have enough excuses to continue to sit tight.

Categories :