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RBS - Is George's Heart Really In A Break-Up?

The UK government’s apparent volte-face over breaking up the 81%-taxpayer-owned Royal Bank of Scotland, revealed by chancellor George Osborne in his Mansion House speech on Wednesday evening, has clearly unnerved markets...

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Euro area economic forecasts: A little light at the end of the tunnel

The euro area remains in the second-deepest recession of its short history. Despite the emergence of a handful of “green shoots”, such as a pick-up in industrial activity and exports in certain countries at the start of the second quarter, sentiment remains...

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Floods in Germany: No impact on ECB policy

In August 2002 Germany was hit by one of its most severe floods in more than a century, causing total estimated damages of €9.2bn (around 0.4% of GDP). While the current floods are unlikely to be as damaging as those...

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Weakness in the euro area's core: Structural or cyclical?

The ECB’s decision in early May to cut its key policy rate to a new record low mainly reflected the deteriorating economic outlook in the euro area’s core. Today’s GDP figures provided a timely reminder of the challenges faced by...

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ECB policy: Looking at the negatives

Last week’s ECB meeting was, to the extent that it offered nothing more concrete than a 25bp cut in the refinancing rate, a disappointment. But markets were mollified by Draghi’s hint in his press conference of further rate...

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