Recent Blogs

Subscribe to RSS feed

FILTER POSTS

Category

Archive

Loosening of UK labour market conditions

16 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UK labour market data provided evidence of a further loosening of conditions, but private sector wage growth momentum is still way too higher for the BoE’s comfort
  • China’s activity data point to a more subdued recovery than expected at start of Q2
  • Updated euro area Q1 GDP figures might well see the modest growth initially reported revised away on the back of the slump in IP
  • US retail sales and industrial production numbers in focus

Categories : 

German factory orders plummet

05 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • German factory orders plummet, while turnover also suggests manufacturing output contracted in Q1
  • French IP fell as strikes weighed on mining output
  • European construction PMIs likely to signal ongoing weakness in the sector
  • US payroll growth likely to have slowed a little further

Categories : 

ECB expected to slow pace of tightening

04 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • ECB expected to slow pace of tightening to 25bps on tighter credit conditions
  • Fed raises rates by 25bps, but signals that the peak might have been reached

Categories : 

All eyes on the Fed and ECB policy decisions

02 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Euro area flash inflation estimates might well see the headline rate little changed on the month, but easing in the core rate would help support the case for a smaller rate hike from the ECB; the latest bank lending figures and ECB credit conditions survey are likely to suggest ongoing tightening of credit standards
  • German retail sales surprised on the downside, falling to the lowest level in more than two years
  • UK shop price inflation stabilised in April despite a new record high in food prices

Categories : 

Inflation data in focus this week

17 April 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • Japanese CPI data (due Friday) are likely to report a drop in inflation in March; but the BoJ’s preferred measure of core inflation could well have edged up to a new 4-decade high
  • UK data on the state of the labour market (tomorrow) and inflation (Wednesday) are likely to have a significant bearing on the BoE’s monetary policy decision next month
  • In the US the the data calendar focuses on the housing market, with housing starts (tomorrow) and existing home sales (Thursday)

Categories :