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Inflation figures in focus this week

27 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Tokyo CPI figures (Friday) likely to report a notable step down in the headline rate in February as the government’s household energy subsidies came into effect
  • Euro area flash February inflation estimates (Thursday) a key focus, with the headline rate expected to moderate for the fourth consecutive month, but core inflation likely to remain sticky
  • A joint statement from UK PM Sunak and EC President von der Leyen this afternoon will announce a new Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, helping to reduce barriers to trade between Great Britain and Ulster while clarifying the role of the ECJ in the process

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Japanese Reuters Tankan signals ongoing manufacturing challenges

22 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Germany’s inflation estimates for January were unrevised from the flash figures
  • INSEE survey suggests a modest improvement in the French business climate with a welcome easing in supply-side constraints 
  • Fed minutes might not fully reflect current balance of views on FOMC

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Japanese PMIs flag diverging conditions

21 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • The flash euro area PMIs are likely to point to further improvement in conditions led by the services sector in February; the region’s new car registrations continued to recover
  • The UK’s fiscal figures beat expectations again despite another monthly record for debt interest; today’s flash UK PMIs are likely to remain consistent with contraction
  • US flash PMIs and Philly Fed non-manufacturing index likely to remain weak

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All eyes in Japan will be on BoJ Governor nominee hearing

20 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Euro area flash consumer confidence index due, while flash PMIs are expected to report a further improvement in conditions in February
  • Sentiment indicators also to dominate the UK this week, with flash PMIs, CBI retail and GfK consumer surveys likely to point to a weak economic outlook in Q1
  • Fed minutes to be watched on Wednesday

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Japanese wages jump in nominal terms

07 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • German IP disappoints to remain firmly in reverse over Q4 as a whole as efforts to cut energy use were maintained; Spanish IP also subtracts from GDP growth in Q4
  • BRC survey suggests UK retailers had a challenging start to the year, with sales slowing further

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