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German factory orders rebounded

06 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese wage data a key focus this week, with headline wage growth expected to have risen to the strongest rate since mid-2018
  • UK GDP data on Friday is likely to report a moderate decline in activity in December, to leave the economy moving broadly sideways in Q4
  • US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations measures in focus

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All eyes turn to the ECB and BoE

02 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • The Fed predictably slowed its pace of tightening to 25bps and Jay Powell failed to buck market pricing of a pivot later this year
  • The ECB looks bound to raise rates by a further 50bps to take the deposit rate to 2.50%, and seems likely to maintain hawkish forward guidance
  • The BoE’s rate decision looks more finely balanced than the ECB’s, as the MPC weighs the tight labour market and strong wage growth against a contracting economy and an acknowledgement that inflation will fall rapidly this year

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Fed takes centre stage

01 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • FOMC widely expected to slow the pace of tightening again to 25bps, taking the fed funds rate target range to 4.50-4.75%
  • Euro area flash inflation estimates could go either way
  • UK shop price inflation unexpectedly accelerated in January as festive discounting faded and food price pressures maintained an upwards trend

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German retail sales slumped in December

31 January 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • French inflation rose in January in line with expectations, but core pressures appear a touch softer; French GDP avoided a contraction in Q4 thanks to a big drop in imports,
  • A mixed bag from Japanese data, with IP a touch firmer than expected; retail sales rose in December and consumer confidence improved at the start of the year
  • US employment cost index for Q4 to be watched closely by the Fed

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Monetary policy decisions dominate the week ahead

30 January 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • A big upside surprise to this morning’s Spanish inflation numbers – with the headline HICP rate up 0.3ppt to 5.8%Y/Y
  • The Fed’s latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday is likely to see another slowing in the pace of tightening to 25bps
  • The ECB is widely expected on Thursday to raise rates by a further 50bps; The BoE’s rate decision on Thursday looks more finely balanced, between a rate hike of 25bps or 50bps 

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