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Fed and BoE to leave policy unchanged

29 January 2024

Emily Nicol
  • The conclusion of the Fed’s policy meeting will see interest rates unchanged, but the policy statement might well see more neutral forward guidance
  • The BoE’s MPC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the BoE’s updated economic projections will bring a notable downwards revision to its inflation forecast
  • Plenty of top-tier data are due from the euro area, including the flash January inflation estimates. In the US, the data highlight will be Friday’s employment report

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BoJ to leave door open for rate hike in the spring

22 January 2024

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • While the ECB’s Governing Council is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the likely timing of the first rate cut will likely dominate President Lagarde’s press conference
  • The euro area January PMIs are expected to report a modest improvement in economic momentum supported by services activity, although the composite PMI will remain consistent with contraction, while the respective indices from the UK, Japan and US will all likely imply positive growth to varying degrees

 

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Euro area, UK and Japan inflation data out this week

15 January 2024

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • Final euro area inflation figures will confirm the ½-point pickup in the headline rate in December, while the ECB’s consumer survey will take stock of inflation expectations
  • UK inflation is forecast to edge slightly lower in December 
  • In Japan, headline CPI inflation is also expected to ease to an 18-month low 
  • Contrary to some expectations, the PBoC left interest rates unchanged today

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German factory orders point to another weak month for manufacturing

08 January 2024

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • The European Commission’s business survey is likely to signal ongoing lacklustre economic momentum at the end of 2023, while euro area retail sales are likely to have fallen sharply in November.
  • In the UK, the latest monthly GDP figures (due Friday) are expected to report a return to positive growth in November.
  • In the US, the key focus will be December’s CPI report (Thursday), with the annual headline inflation rate expected to tick slightly higher.
  • In Japan, Tokyo CPI inflation is forecast to decline for a second successive month in November.

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BoJ keeps its powder dry for 2024

19 December 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • BoJ’s monetary policy and forward guidance left unchanged
  • Outlook for wages still key for the BoJ, but Fed policy shift complicates the outlook
  • Further communication to come from the BoJ ahead of the next policy meeting

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