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German ifo suggests easing in economic downturn

Emily Nicol
Chris Scicluna
  • Tomorrow’s BoJ monetary policy announcement should be a non-event, with no changes to be made to policy
  • Top-tier data to come this week include euro area consumer confidence and German producer prices, US consumer confidence, the UK’s current account deficit, and Japanese CPI inflation and US personal income, spending and the PCE deflators

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UK retail sales disappoint in November

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Flash German and French PMIs again point to contraction in Q4
  • Despite a boost to services from improving tourism and the government’s discounted travel scheme, Japan’s flash composite PMI was merely consistent with stagnation in December

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All eyes on the ECB and BoE

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Fed predictably slows the pace of tightening to 50bps; ECB and BoE also expected to moderate the pace of rate hikes
  • Chinese economic activity goes into reverse in November before the authorities adjust the zero-Covid policy
  • Japanese trade deficit declines in November on lower commodity prices; tertiary activity posts modest rise at the start of Q4

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UK inflation surprises on the downside

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ Tankan survey is a mixed bag
  • Euro area IP expected to start Q4 on the back foot
  • The Fed is widely expected to slow the pace of monetary tightening this month, with a hike of 50bps seemingly a done deal

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Monetary policy in the spotlight this week

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Rebound in UK GDP in October firmer than expected, but downwards trend remains
  • Japanese business survey points to difference in conditions between services (favourable) and manufacturing (challenging)
  • We expect the Fed (Wednesday), ECB and BoE (both Thursday) to slow the pace of monetary tightening, while signalling the likelihood of further rate hikes in Q1

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