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UK inflation surprises on the downside

14 December 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ Tankan survey is a mixed bag
  • Euro area IP expected to start Q4 on the back foot
  • The Fed is widely expected to slow the pace of monetary tightening this month, with a hike of 50bps seemingly a done deal

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Monetary policy in the spotlight this week

12 December 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Rebound in UK GDP in October firmer than expected, but downwards trend remains
  • Japanese business survey points to difference in conditions between services (favourable) and manufacturing (challenging)
  • We expect the Fed (Wednesday), ECB and BoE (both Thursday) to slow the pace of monetary tightening, while signalling the likelihood of further rate hikes in Q1

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BoJ’s consumption activity index posts a solid increase

07 December 2022

Emily Nicol
  • Reuters Tankan survey signalled an improvement in Japanese business conditions
  • China’s goods trade report disappointed, with exports falling in November at the steepest pace since February 2020
  • German IP declined less than expected in October to maintain a broadly sideways trend
  • Ahead of next week’s Governing Council meeting, an ECB consumer survey will be watched this morning for a further de-anchoring of medium term price expectations; updated GDP and employment figures are also scheduled in the euro area
  • US consumer credit and updated productivity numbers due for release

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German factory orders were a touch firmer than expected

06 December 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s household spending figures for the start of Q4 beat expectations, but outlook remains weak; Kuroda reiterates that it’s too soon to review the details of the BoJ’s monetary policy framework
  • ECB Chief Economist Lane implied that he will advocate a 50bp hike at next monetary policy meeting
  • UK retail survey pointed to a boost to the value of sales in November

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Japan’s services PMI consistent with stagnation

05 December 2022

Emily Nicol
  • Euro area retail sales expected to have fallen sharply as household budgets continue to be squeezed by high inflation; ECB consumer survey to be watched for any pickup in inflation expectations
  • UK retail survey this week likely to suggest weak consumer spending last month despite Black Friday discounting; BoE inflation attitudes survey to be watched for any signs of de-anchoring in medium-term expectations

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