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UK CPI inflation returned back to double-digits in September

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe and Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser to testify before Treasury Select Committee on the Bank’s recent gilt market intervention
  • BoJ likely to step up its bond buying as 10Y JGB yield breached the Bank’s 0.25% upper limit
  • Final euro area HICP inflation release likely to see the headline rate nudged slightly lower from the flash estimate, but still remain at a series high

 

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Japanese tertiary firmer than expected in August

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Final euro area inflation estimates (Wednesday) are likely to confirm headline and core inflation at a record high in September; various sentiment surveys from the euro area are also due this week 
  • UK inflation data (Wednesday) are expected to report that the headline CPI rate rose back above 10%Y/Y in September amid broad-based price pressures

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Gilts rally as UK fiscal U-turn expected

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Chinese inflation data surprise on the downside suggesting some room for PBoC manoeuvre
  • Final French inflation data align with flash estimates; euro area trade deficit set to widen further to new series high on energy prices
  • Retail sales and consumer sentiment the focus in the US

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German inflation was confirmed in double-digits in September

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • As mortgage rates jump, RICS survey flags loss of momentum in the UK housing market
  • After yesterday’s minutes from September’s FOMC meeting highlighted that the Fed remains focussed on inflation rather than growth concerns, US CPI report will be watched closely

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UK GDP data disappoint again

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese machine orders weaker than expected in August, but probably due to one-off factors
  • Reuters Tankan survey reports deterioration in Japanese manufacturing sentiment, but services sentiment continues to improve on post-pandemic reopening
  • Euro area industrial output likely to show a moderate rebound in production in August

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