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German IP up, but set to subtract from GDP growth in Q2

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ’s consumption activity index signals a solid rebound in spending on services 
  • The ECB account of the 9 June meeting that pre-committed to rate hikes in July and September will be scrutinised
  • The minutes of the FOMC’s June meeting reaffirmed the Fed is on an aggressive path of tightening

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Japanese household inflation expectations revised higher

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German factory orders avoid fourth successive drop but trend still very weak; manufacturing turnover up
  • Euro area retail sales figures likely to remain subdued 
  • Politics dominate in the UK, with a majority of Brits wanting Johnson to quit; sterling to benefit as likelihood of Johnson’s departure increases

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Japanese wages miss expectations

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese services PMI at 3rd-best on series despite downwards revision
  • French manufacturing output ends losing streak with modest uptick up in May as car output rises 
  • UK new car sales have worst June since 1996

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German goods trade balance in deficit

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German goods trade balance in deficit for first time since 1991 as import price shock continues to reverberate
  • ECB meeting account and (subdued) euro area retail sales data to come later in the week
  • Japanese wage and spending figures to be watched this week 
  • US payrolls growth set to have slowed on concerns about economic outlook

 

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Tokyo CPI inflation slips back on food prices

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Tankan reports rise in Japanese firms’ medium-term inflation expectations close to BoJ target
  • Tokyo CPI inflation slips back on food prices; core measures edge higher but remain well below levels consistent with the BoJ’s targets
  • Japanese labour market numbers softer than expected
  • Flash euro area inflation estimate forecast to jump to a new record high

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