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BoJ to announce end to negative rates and YCC

18 March 2024

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Elsewhere, the Fed will take stock of recent upside inflation surprises, with its updated dot plots likely to signal an expectation on the FOMC of at most three rate cuts this year and another four in 2025;
  • The BoE is bound to leave Bank Rate at 5.25% again and also seems likely to leave its forward guidance broadly unchanged
  • Data-wise, final February inflation figures from the euro area should show a further easing of underlying price pressures while UK inflation should fall ½ppt or more in both headline and core terms

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Euro area core inflation should fall to a 2-year low

26 February 2024

Emily Nicol
  • In the US, the manufacturing ISM for February and advance January data for durable goods orders, goods trade, personal consumption and the PCE deflator will offer greater insight into recovery momentum.
  • A busy week in Japan will bring January inflation estimates, which are expected to see the headline CPI rate fall back below the 2% target for the first time since March 2022.
  • In the UK, the BoE’s bank lending figures are likely to report that mortgage lending remained subdued in January, while the BRC measure of shop price inflation might well report a further moderation as retailers pass on lower input costs.

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This week brings the latest inflation figures and GDP data

12 February 2024

Emily Nicol
  • In the US, January’s CPI report will be published, as well as the latest IP and retail sales reports
  • A busy week for top-tier UK releases including January’s CPI report, December’s labour market report, Q4 GDP and January retail sales figures
  • In the euro area, an updated estimate of Q4 GDP is expected to confirm zero growth, with euro area IP in December expected to rise despite weakness in Germany
  • In Japan, the main focus in the week ahead will be the preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP

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Fed and BoE to leave policy unchanged

29 January 2024

Emily Nicol
  • The conclusion of the Fed’s policy meeting will see interest rates unchanged, but the policy statement might well see more neutral forward guidance
  • The BoE’s MPC is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the BoE’s updated economic projections will bring a notable downwards revision to its inflation forecast
  • Plenty of top-tier data are due from the euro area, including the flash January inflation estimates. In the US, the data highlight will be Friday’s employment report

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BoJ to leave door open for rate hike in the spring

22 January 2024

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • While the ECB’s Governing Council is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the likely timing of the first rate cut will likely dominate President Lagarde’s press conference
  • The euro area January PMIs are expected to report a modest improvement in economic momentum supported by services activity, although the composite PMI will remain consistent with contraction, while the respective indices from the UK, Japan and US will all likely imply positive growth to varying degrees

 

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