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The BoJ signals a pickup in Japanese consumption

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • The BoJ's consumer opinion survey reports a more upbeat assessment of the economic outlook and a notable jump in consumers’ expectations for inflation in the year ahead.
  • Surveys suggest that UK spending on the high street held up relatively well at the end of the year despite some inevitable payback for November’s strength
  • Spanish industrial production surges in November.

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US and Chinese inflation data key focus in the week ahead

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese dataflow to get underway tomorrow with BoJ figures on private consumption; surveys to provide an update on conditions around the turn of the year.
  • Euro area labour market, IP and trade numbers due this week.
  • November GDP report on Friday the highlight in the UK.

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Morning comment: No BoJ surprises

Chris Scicluna
  • After the BoJ pulled no surprises overnight, all eyes remain on the bond market. 

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Japan: Everything under control in 2017?

  • Japan’s economic recovery looks set to be maintained in 2017, supported by both domestic and external demand.
  • But while inflation will move gradually higher, it will remain some way below target, and so the BoJ will be in no rush to amend its yield curve control policy. 

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Kuroda does what he can (but it won’t be enough)

  • The BoJ announced a yield curve control framework and its commitment to over-achieve on its inflation target.
  • But without a fundamental shift in the macro policy mix, rates may have to stay at or below current levels for the next decade or beyond.

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