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ECB expected to slow pace of tightening

04 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • ECB expected to slow pace of tightening to 25bps on tighter credit conditions
  • Fed raises rates by 25bps, but signals that the peak might have been reached

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All eyes on the Fed and ECB policy decisions

02 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Euro area flash inflation estimates might well see the headline rate little changed on the month, but easing in the core rate would help support the case for a smaller rate hike from the ECB; the latest bank lending figures and ECB credit conditions survey are likely to suggest ongoing tightening of credit standards
  • German retail sales surprised on the downside, falling to the lowest level in more than two years
  • UK shop price inflation stabilised in April despite a new record high in food prices

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Inflation data in focus this week

17 April 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • Japanese CPI data (due Friday) are likely to report a drop in inflation in March; but the BoJ’s preferred measure of core inflation could well have edged up to a new 4-decade high
  • UK data on the state of the labour market (tomorrow) and inflation (Wednesday) are likely to have a significant bearing on the BoE’s monetary policy decision next month
  • In the US the the data calendar focuses on the housing market, with housing starts (tomorrow) and existing home sales (Thursday)

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Japan's machine orders point to soft external demand

12 April 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • Gradual moderation of goods price pressures evident in Japan’s PPI
  • BoJ survey flags Japanese consumer concerns about inflation
  • European central bankers, including BoE Governor Bailey, to speak publicly
  • US CPI data and Fed minutes most likely to move markets today

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UK retail survey points to negative trend in sales volumes

11 April 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Chinese inflation remained very subdued in March, with headline CPI inflation easing to an eighteen-month low of just 0.7%Y/Y
  • Euro area retail sales likely to have weakened in February as consumer confidence remained relatively subdued
  • US NFIB small business survey due today, with the headline sentiment index expected to have slipped back in March

 

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