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Tokyo inflation took a significant step down

03 March 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Germany’s goods trade surplus rose to a near 2-year high; French manufacturing output started 2023 on the back foot 
  • ECB Governing Council hawk Wunsch flagged the possibility that the deposit rate might have to rise to 4.0%
  • February services PMIs from the euro area and UK this morning are expected to reaffirm the signal of a notable rebound in activity in the sector in the middle of Q1.

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UK shop price inflation jumped to a series high

01 March 2023

Emily Nicol
  • CPI estimates from Germany’s largest state NRW surprised on the upside, suggesting that German inflation is at greater risk of an unwelcome increase in February
  • Nationwide reported that UK house prices fell for the sixth consecutive month
  • Chinese PMIs came in well ahead of expectations in February

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Japanese retail sales jump at the start of the year

28 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Deputy Governor nominee Uchida supported the notion that the new BoJ leadership should review policy before making any significant changes
  • Japanese IP fell sharply at the start of the year as autos production went into reverse
  • The flash estimates of French and Spanish inflation came in firmer than expected in February

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Inflation figures in focus this week

27 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Tokyo CPI figures (Friday) likely to report a notable step down in the headline rate in February as the government’s household energy subsidies came into effect
  • Euro area flash February inflation estimates (Thursday) a key focus, with the headline rate expected to moderate for the fourth consecutive month, but core inflation likely to remain sticky
  • A joint statement from UK PM Sunak and EC President von der Leyen this afternoon will announce a new Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, helping to reduce barriers to trade between Great Britain and Ulster while clarifying the role of the ECJ in the process

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Japanese Reuters Tankan signals ongoing manufacturing challenges

22 February 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Germany’s inflation estimates for January were unrevised from the flash figures
  • INSEE survey suggests a modest improvement in the French business climate with a welcome easing in supply-side constraints 
  • Fed minutes might not fully reflect current balance of views on FOMC

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