01 February 2023
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- FOMC widely expected to slow the pace of tightening again to 25bps, taking the fed funds rate target range to 4.50-4.75%
- Euro area flash inflation estimates could go either way
- UK shop price inflation unexpectedly accelerated in January as festive discounting faded and food price pressures maintained an upwards trend
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31 January 2023
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- French inflation rose in January in line with expectations, but core pressures appear a touch softer; French GDP avoided a contraction in Q4 thanks to a big drop in imports,
- A mixed bag from Japanese data, with IP a touch firmer than expected; retail sales rose in December and consumer confidence improved at the start of the year
- US employment cost index for Q4 to be watched closely by the Fed
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30 January 2023
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- A big upside surprise to this morning’s Spanish inflation numbers – with the headline HICP rate up 0.3ppt to 5.8%Y/Y
- The Fed’s latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday is likely to see another slowing in the pace of tightening to 25bps
- The ECB is widely expected on Thursday to raise rates by a further 50bps; The BoE’s rate decision on Thursday looks more finely balanced, between a rate hike of 25bps or 50bps
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27 January 2023
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- French consumer confidence unexpectedly fell further
- Spanish Q4 GDP growth slightly exceeded expectations
- Following the Q4 GDP report, focus in the US today turns to the December personal income, spending and deflators
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24 January 2023
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- The BoJ’s estimates of underlying price pressures suggested a further broadening at the end of last year
- Germany’s GfK survey suggested consumers were more optimistic about the outlook
- French flash PMIs reported improvement in manufacturing but slight softening in services, but French INSEE survey reported a deterioration in wholesale trade and construction conditions
- In the UK, public finance figures reported record borrowing in December
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