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BoJ to leave door open for rate hike in the spring

22 January 2024

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • While the ECB’s Governing Council is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, the likely timing of the first rate cut will likely dominate President Lagarde’s press conference
  • The euro area January PMIs are expected to report a modest improvement in economic momentum supported by services activity, although the composite PMI will remain consistent with contraction, while the respective indices from the UK, Japan and US will all likely imply positive growth to varying degrees

 

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Euro area, UK and Japan inflation data out this week

15 January 2024

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • Final euro area inflation figures will confirm the ½-point pickup in the headline rate in December, while the ECB’s consumer survey will take stock of inflation expectations
  • UK inflation is forecast to edge slightly lower in December 
  • In Japan, headline CPI inflation is also expected to ease to an 18-month low 
  • Contrary to some expectations, the PBoC left interest rates unchanged today

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German factory orders point to another weak month for manufacturing

08 January 2024

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • The European Commission’s business survey is likely to signal ongoing lacklustre economic momentum at the end of 2023, while euro area retail sales are likely to have fallen sharply in November.
  • In the UK, the latest monthly GDP figures (due Friday) are expected to report a return to positive growth in November.
  • In the US, the key focus will be December’s CPI report (Thursday), with the annual headline inflation rate expected to tick slightly higher.
  • In Japan, Tokyo CPI inflation is forecast to decline for a second successive month in November.

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Fed, ECB and BoE expected to leave interest rates unchanged

11 December 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • US CPI inflation is expected to edge slightly lower in November on weaker gasoline prices
  • UK labour market figures should report a notable slowing of momentum in wage growth, while GDP should post a third consecutive monthly increase
  • In Japan, the Q4 Tankan survey will be closely watched for recent economic momentum and developments in firms’ inflation expectations
  • Friday brings the flash PMI surveys for December

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Inflation data in focus this week

13 November 2023

Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s producer price inflation fell sharply in October to its lowest since February 2021
  • In the euro area, updated Q3 GDP data are expected to confirm a modest contraction. Friday will  bring revised euro area inflation figures for October.
  • In the UK, October’s CPI inflation release is expected to report a marked drop in headline inflation due to a sharp drop in energy inflation.

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