Recent Blogs

Subscribe to RSS feed

FILTER POSTS

Category

Archive

Flash PMIs, inflation and LDP leadership election the highlights this week

23 September 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • The flash September PMIs from the major economies will provide an update on economic conditions at the end of Q3 - while the surveys from the US and Japan will likely point to ongoing expansion at the end of Q3, the euro area composite PMI reported a notable deterioration and signalled renewed contraction
  • The US PCE deflator, flash estimates of French and Spanish inflation and Tokyo CPI figures are due Friday
  • In Japan, the main focus will be the LDP leadership election result on Friday. With nine candidates nominated, the outcome is difficult to predict, but polls put former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi as the marginal favourite among LDP lawmakers and supporters to become Japan’s next Prime Minister 

Categories : 

Fed set to cut rates for first time this cycle, but BoE & BoJ to stand pat

16 September 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • In a busy week for monetary policy decisions, the Fed seems bound to deliver the first rate cut this cycle, although the magnitude – 25bps or 50bps – is too close to call with certainty 
  • The BoE is likely to leave Bank Rate on hold, but the policy statement could well signal that a further cut will come at the following meeting in November and we do not rule out a cut this week if UK inflation data surprise significantly to the downside
  • The BoJ’s policy announcement is widely expected to leave the main interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, but Ueda might well leave the door open to a further cut this year

Categories : 

ECB to deliver a further 25bps cut, while US CPI report in focus

09 September 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • The ECB’s policy announcement seems bound to deliver a further cut of 25bps in the Deposit Rate to 3.5%, while President Lagarde might also offer a more dovish take in her press conference in line with a more subdued outlook for economic activity
  • In the US, all eyes will be on the August CPI report, which will likely see the annual rate of headline inflation ease to 2.6%Y/Y the lowest since March, with core inflation unchanged at 3.2%Y/Y, the joint-lowest since spring 2021
  • A busy week for UK data will bring an update on labour market conditions and monthly GDP figures 

Categories : 

US payrolls & ISMs in focus along with Japanese wage figures

02 September 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • Friday's US payrolls report will likely show a moderate pickup in non-farm payrolls following the slowdown in July with the unemployment rate possible declining too
  • Figures for euro area retail sales, German factory orders and industrial production will provide an update on economic activity at the start of Q3
  • Japanese wage growth is expected to have slowed slightly due to bonus payments but remain above the average of recent years 

Categories : 

Key inflation estimates from the US, euro area and Japan in focus

24 June 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • Key inflation figures include the US core PCE deflator for May, flash euro area inflation  and Tokyo CPI for June
  • The European Commission's economic sentiment survey will provide a stock-check on Friday's disappointing flash PMIs

Categories :