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Gilts rally as UK fiscal U-turn expected

14 October 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Chinese inflation data surprise on the downside suggesting some room for PBoC manoeuvre
  • Final French inflation data align with flash estimates; euro area trade deficit set to widen further to new series high on energy prices
  • Retail sales and consumer sentiment the focus in the US

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German inflation was confirmed in double-digits in September

13 October 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • As mortgage rates jump, RICS survey flags loss of momentum in the UK housing market
  • After yesterday’s minutes from September’s FOMC meeting highlighted that the Fed remains focussed on inflation rather than growth concerns, US CPI report will be watched closely

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UK GDP data disappoint again

12 October 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese machine orders weaker than expected in August, but probably due to one-off factors
  • Reuters Tankan survey reports deterioration in Japanese manufacturing sentiment, but services sentiment continues to improve on post-pandemic reopening
  • Euro area industrial output likely to show a moderate rebound in production in August

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BoE widens scope of its Gilt purchases to include linkers

11 October 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Drop in UK unemployment rate to its lowest since 1974 reflects increased inactivity
  • Japanese economy watchers less pessimistic about household demand in September as Covid infections fall back
  • Italian IP data expected to report a modest drop in output

 

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BoE to increase long-dated bond purchases

10 October 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UK labour market figures on Tuesday are expected to show that unemployment remained at the 48-year low of 3.6% in the three months to August; August’s GDP report (Wednesday) is likely to confirm very subdued growth on the month 
  • Euro area IP and goods trade figures (due Wednesday and Friday) are expected to show that output rose in August despite a decline in Germany
  • A busy week ahead in the US brings the Fed minutes from the 21 September FOMC meeting (Wednesday), followed by September’s CPI report (Thursday) 
  • Following today’s Japanese holiday, the focus this week will turn to sentiment indicators, with the economy watchers, Reuters Tankan and BoJ’s consumer opinion survey all due

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