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ECB meeting account to provide further insights into debate on rates

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Powell’s Jackson Hole speech to give opportunity for an updated Fed policy signal 
  • Flash PMIs (tomorrow) likely to flag rising recession risks in the euro area and UK as concerns about high energy prices and other cost pressures take their toll; Japanese indices likely to remain subdued

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UK CPI inflation hits double-digits in July

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s nominal trade deficit hit a series high in July as higher prices of fuel and other imported items continued to dominate; Reuters Tankan survey points to modest improvement in Japanese business sentiment in August
  • Updated euro area GDP figures this morning likely to confirm the flash estimate of growth of 0.7%Q/Q in Q2, while employment is set to rise for the fifth consecutive quarter
  • Focus in the US will be on July retail sales figures ahead of the release of the Fed’s minutes from the end-July policy meeting

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UK real pay falls at record rate

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • UK labour market tightness eases only slightly with unemployment rate and redundancies still very low
  • While Japanese services firms were boosted by increased opportunities to spend in Q2, today’s tertiary activity figures suggested a slowdown in the sector at the end of the quarter

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Japanese GDP returns to growth in Q2

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • China’s economic activity data for July miss expectations, with particular weakness in retail sales and property investment amid ongoing falls in home prices prompting surprise rate cut from the PBoC
  • UK inflation set to reach a new high close to 10%Y/Y (Wednesday) amid tight labour market (tomorrow) despite ongoing weakness in retail sales and extremely weak consumer confidence (Friday)
  • Wednesday will be the main focus in the US, with retail sales data and the latest Fed minutes due

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Japanese economy watchers more downbeat

Emily Nicol
  • US inflation key focus this week – headline inflation expected to ease, but core rate to be higher
  • Chinese trade surplus hits a series high; inflation likely to show underlying price pressures remain subdued
  • UK GDP likely to confirm the economy contracted in Q2

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