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Influential member of ECB signals that tightening is imminent

04 May 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • German goods exports drop in March as shipments to Russia fall more than 60% on sanctions; import values higher but only due to inflation; trade surplus smallest in more than 20 years
  • UK retail survey suggests that prices on the high street in April rose at strongest rate since 2011 despite intense competition among supermarkets on everyday essentials

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Euro area Q1 GDP growth weighed by latest pandemic wave and Ukraine war

29 April 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • While French inflation was expected to be unchanged on the EU measure in April, it rose to 5.4%Y/Y with increasing food and core pressures more than offsetting the impact of lower energy prices.
  • UK house prices rose for the ninth successive month in April according to the Nationwide index.

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German consumer confidence plunged to series low

27 April 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • French consumers also the most downbeat since the yellow vest protests in late 2018, with proportion of households assessing it a good time to buy similarly well below long-run average.
  • US advance goods trade likely to report ongoing sideways trend in exports, but a cooling in imports.

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Japan’s unemployment rate falls to a near-2-year low

26 April 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Ahead of its latest monetary policy announcement on Thursday, the BoJ announces another two days of special unlimited purchase operations of 10Y JGBs at a fixed rate of 0.25%, to continue to defend its yield curve control framework.
  • BoJ’s estimate of trimmed mean CPI highest since 2008, but still well below 2% target and considerably lower than the US and euro area rates.
  • UK public finances data confirm that deficit more than halved as a share of GDP in FY21/22.

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Comfortable victory for Macron

25 April 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Comfortable victory for Macron in French Presidential election. Focus now shifts to June's Parliamentary elections.
  • The BoJ set to leave policy unchanged despite higher inflation, rising global yields and weak yen.
  • German ifo business survey set to signal ongoing struggles in manufacturing but firmer services sentiment. Friday's euro area GDP report expected to suggest another quarter of very weak but positive growth in Q1.
  • US GDP data expected to report a marked slowdown in Q1.

 

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