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UK shop prices point to inflationary pressures

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s MoF capital spending survey points to an upwards revision to Q4 GDP.
  • External BoE MPC members Mann and Saunders reaffirm the likelihood that they will vote for another rate hike this month and some further tightening thereafter.
  • Euro area flash inflation to rise to new euro-era high in February.
  • All eyes in the US on Jay Powell’s monetary policy testimony to Congress.

 

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Japanese vehicle sales remain in reverse

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI signals weakness ahead; Chinese PMIs defy expectations of further declines, firming on increased new orders.
  • German and Italian flash inflation data expected to be consistent with a further big jump in euro area inflation; French car registrations at lowest February level in more than fifty years.

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Japanese retail sales hit by coronavirus wave

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Policymakers from the major central banks might this week give an indication of the extent to which their plans for policy normalization have been knocked off track by events in Ukraine.
  • Spanish inflation again surprises on the upside on broad-based pressures, so euro area inflation due mid-week set to hit new high.
  • Friday's labour market report the highlight of a busy week ahead for US data.

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French inflation beats expectations

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • The flash estimates of French inflation February – the first to come from the euro area beat expectations, with the national measure rising to its highest level since 2008; French consumer spending was weaker than expected.
  • UK consumer confidence plunged in February to a thirteen-month low, with expectations for personal finances down close to a record low.

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Russia launches full-blown invasion of Ukraine

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Price of Brent crude oil currently up more than 6% on the day to around $103bbl, highest since 2014.
  • Irish central bank governor Makhlouf states that ECB may still announce end to net asset purchases next month, with those purchases possibly brought to an end in Q2 (which seems too soon to us) or Q3.
  • US GDP growth in Q4 set to be revised up.

 

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