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Japan’s trade deficit widens to an 8-year high

17 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese machine orders data for December beat expectations but survey’s Q1 forecast disappoints.
  • EU new car registrations fall a dissapointing 6.0%Y/Y (down 6.9%Y/Y in the euro area) in January weighed by France and Italy.

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UK inflation once again exceeds expectations

16 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UK inflation once again exceeds expectations, maintaining the inevitability of another BoE rate hike next month.
  • China’s CPI inflation fell short of expectations to a four-month low in January, on the back of steep declines in food prices.
  • Japan’s Reuters Tankan flagged a further deterioration in business conditions.
  • French retail sales weakened at the start of the year as the latest pandemic wave and tighter restrictions weighed on spending.

 

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ECB speak and FOMC minutes focus this week

14 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • The first estimate of Japan’s Q4 GDP is expected to report a solid rebound in output at the end of last year; January inflation numbers are expected to have fallen back.
  • Chinese CPI inflation is expected to have fallen further at the start of the year.
  • ECB President Lagarde in action this week, while updated euro area Q4 GDP numbers expected to confirm softer growth, but employment is likely to have risen further in Q4.
  • Key UK releases this week include labour market, inflation and retail sales, with the rise in coronavirus cases and ongoing restrictions adding a greater degree of uncertainty.
  • US retail sales and industrial production data set to confirm ongoing recovery at the start of the year; FOMC minutes to be watched closely for further insights into near-term policy tightening.

 

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Lagarde argues for gradual approach to normalisation

11 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
  • UK GDP rises 1.0%Q/Q in Q4, broadly in line with expectations after modest drop in December, to be still 0.4% below the level in Q419.
  • Modest drop in German inflation in January on tax change base effects confirmed.

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BoJ Governor dismisses need for tighter policy

10 February 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UK housing survey reports continued strong price growth amid an ongoing imbalance between supply and demand; labour market survey similarly suggests continued strong pressures on pay growth.
  • ECB commentary to be watched closely for hints on the likely path of euro area monetary policy this year.
  • US CPI report expected to show annual inflation in January up to an eye-popping 7.3%Y/Y.

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