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Japan’s unemployment rate dropped

01 August 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Euro area unemployment figures are expected to be consistent with a tight labour market
  • The BRC survey showed that UK shop price inflation eased to lowest since December
  • Focus in the US will be on the manufacturing ISM survey

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ECB set to raise rates by 25bps

27 July 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • After the Fed resumed its tightening cycle yesterday, the ECB is similarly expected to hike rates by 25bps, with Lagarde to signal that further tightening in September is very possible if not nailed on
  • German consumer confidence was a touch firmer than expected 
  • UK retail sector survey likely to signal that household spending on goods remained subdued at the start of Q3
  • The first estimate of US Q2 GDP is expected to report another quarter of solid growth

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A busy week ahead for monetary policy

24 July 2023

Emily Nicol
  • Fed set to resume its tightening cycle, the ECB set to raise rates and again signal more tightening to come, but the BoJ likely to maintain the key policy parameters of its Yield Curve Control framework
  • Japan's composite output PMI suggested ongoing steady expansion at the start of the third quarter, while the German and French composite PMIs signalled contraction
  • The outcome of Spain’s general election over the weekend points to an extended period of political uncertainty

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Inflation features in the coming week

17 July 2023

Emily Nicol
  • China’s Q2 GDP fell short of expectations to suggest a slowing recovery momentum
  • Japanese CPI a key highlight this week, with headline inflation expected to have moved sideways in June
  • All eyes in the UK will be on Wednesday’s inflation figures, with the headline CPI rate expected to have eased
  • Final euro area inflation estimates are expected to confirm that the headline HICP rate fell to a 17-month low
  • June reports on US retail sales and industrial production are due this week

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BoJ Tankan signals improved business conditions

03 July 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Payrolls data likely to suggest a moderation in job growth in June; ISM surveys and FOMC minutes also due out this week
  • ECB consumer expectations survey and PPI figures to offer further insight into the euro area’s inflation outlook
  • BoE Decision Maker Panel survey results to offer further insight into UK firms’ output price and inflation expectations

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