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ECB central bank forum to be closely watched

26 June 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • This week, the flash euro area inflation estimates are expected to show that the headline rate moderated further, while the Commission’s survey results will provide updates on economic recovery momentum and inflation expectations
  • Tokyo CPI figures will also be in focus at the end of the week, with core inflation expected to have risen to a new 41-year high in June
  • Personal income, spending and PCE deflators the data highlights in the US this week

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Japanese headline inflation eased in May

23 June 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UK retail sales grew in May to be on track for modest growth in Q2 while consumer confidence improved
  • Euro area PMIs set to suggest a notable loss of recovery momentum
  • The flash US PMIs are also expected to report a slowdown in activity

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Will BoE hike Bank Rate by 50bps?

22 June 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • After a big upside surprises in the latest UK wage and inflation data, there is now a significant probability that the BoE will hike Bank Rate by 50bps to 5.00%
  • The flash estimate of euro area consumer confidence due this afternoon is expected to post a modest improvement
  • Fed Chair Powell to repeat his hawkish message before the Senate Committee, while existing home sales expected to remain very weak

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UK inflation surprises significantly to the upside

21 June 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • Reuters Tankan survey signalled a pickup in Japan’s recovery momentum, with auto manufacturers benefitting from an easing in supply constraints
  • Fed Chair Powell expected to deliver a relatively hawkish message before Congress, reiterating that further interest rate hikes are likely this year

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BoE takes the spotlight this week

19 June 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • BoE expected to hike Bank Rate by a further 25bps, but in the event of a sizeable upside surprise to May’s CPI report we wouldn’t rule out a larger 50bps increase
  • Flash euro area PMIs likely to point a further moderation in economic recovery momentum
  • Japanese CPI figures expected to report a slight easing in headline inflation, but a further increase in underlying price pressures
  • Fed Chair Powell’s monetary policy testimony to Congress likely to reiterate that the current inflation outlook justifies further policy tightening this cycle

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