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Japanese GDP returned to growth in Q1

17 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese GDP boosted by a recovery in consumer spending and tourism
  • Euro area final inflation figures likely to tally with the flash estimates reporting a slight uptick in the headline rate but slight easing in the core rate
  • US housing starts expected to decline in April as demand remains hit by tighter credit conditions

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Loosening of UK labour market conditions

16 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UK labour market data provided evidence of a further loosening of conditions, but private sector wage growth momentum is still way too higher for the BoE’s comfort
  • China’s activity data point to a more subdued recovery than expected at start of Q2
  • Updated euro area Q1 GDP figures might well see the modest growth initially reported revised away on the back of the slump in IP
  • US retail sales and industrial production numbers in focus

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German factory orders plummet

05 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • German factory orders plummet, while turnover also suggests manufacturing output contracted in Q1
  • French IP fell as strikes weighed on mining output
  • European construction PMIs likely to signal ongoing weakness in the sector
  • US payroll growth likely to have slowed a little further

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ECB expected to slow pace of tightening

04 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • ECB expected to slow pace of tightening to 25bps on tighter credit conditions
  • Fed raises rates by 25bps, but signals that the peak might have been reached

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All eyes on the Fed and ECB policy decisions

02 May 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Euro area flash inflation estimates might well see the headline rate little changed on the month, but easing in the core rate would help support the case for a smaller rate hike from the ECB; the latest bank lending figures and ECB credit conditions survey are likely to suggest ongoing tightening of credit standards
  • German retail sales surprised on the downside, falling to the lowest level in more than two years
  • UK shop price inflation stabilised in April despite a new record high in food prices

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