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Inflation data in focus this week

17 April 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • Japanese CPI data (due Friday) are likely to report a drop in inflation in March; but the BoJ’s preferred measure of core inflation could well have edged up to a new 4-decade high
  • UK data on the state of the labour market (tomorrow) and inflation (Wednesday) are likely to have a significant bearing on the BoE’s monetary policy decision next month
  • In the US the the data calendar focuses on the housing market, with housing starts (tomorrow) and existing home sales (Thursday)

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Japan's machine orders point to soft external demand

12 April 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • Gradual moderation of goods price pressures evident in Japan’s PPI
  • BoJ survey flags Japanese consumer concerns about inflation
  • European central bankers, including BoE Governor Bailey, to speak publicly
  • US CPI data and Fed minutes most likely to move markets today

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UK retail survey points to negative trend in sales volumes

11 April 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Chinese inflation remained very subdued in March, with headline CPI inflation easing to an eighteen-month low of just 0.7%Y/Y
  • Euro area retail sales likely to have weakened in February as consumer confidence remained relatively subdued
  • US NFIB small business survey due today, with the headline sentiment index expected to have slipped back in March

 

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BoJ’s Tankan flags further divergence in business conditions

03 April 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Following last week’s euro area CPI release, the latest PPI and ECB consumer expectations survey will be of interest this week
  • UK final PMIs likely to confirm a moderation in recovery momentum at the end of Q1
  • Labour market report the highlight of a busy week for US economic data with payroll growth expected to moderate somewhat in March to about 250k

 

 

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Euro area headline inflation set for a sizeable decline

31 March 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Tokyo inflation edged slightly lower in March amid a further moderation in energy prices; Japanese IP beat expectations in February driven by a further recovery in the autos sector
  • Euro area unemployment figures are likely to remain consistent with a tight labour market 
  • UK house prices fell for the 7th successive month in March 
  • Monthly personal spending, income and price deflators for February key focus in the US

 

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