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UK retail sales disappoint in November

16 December 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Flash German and French PMIs again point to contraction in Q4
  • Despite a boost to services from improving tourism and the government’s discounted travel scheme, Japan’s flash composite PMI was merely consistent with stagnation in December

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All eyes on the ECB and BoE

15 December 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Fed predictably slows the pace of tightening to 50bps; ECB and BoE also expected to moderate the pace of rate hikes
  • Chinese economic activity goes into reverse in November before the authorities adjust the zero-Covid policy
  • Japanese trade deficit declines in November on lower commodity prices; tertiary activity posts modest rise at the start of Q4

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UK inflation surprises on the downside

14 December 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ Tankan survey is a mixed bag
  • Euro area IP expected to start Q4 on the back foot
  • The Fed is widely expected to slow the pace of monetary tightening this month, with a hike of 50bps seemingly a done deal

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Monetary policy in the spotlight this week

12 December 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Rebound in UK GDP in October firmer than expected, but downwards trend remains
  • Japanese business survey points to difference in conditions between services (favourable) and manufacturing (challenging)
  • We expect the Fed (Wednesday), ECB and BoE (both Thursday) to slow the pace of monetary tightening, while signalling the likelihood of further rate hikes in Q1

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BoJ’s consumption activity index posts a solid increase

07 December 2022

Emily Nicol
  • Reuters Tankan survey signalled an improvement in Japanese business conditions
  • China’s goods trade report disappointed, with exports falling in November at the steepest pace since February 2020
  • German IP declined less than expected in October to maintain a broadly sideways trend
  • Ahead of next week’s Governing Council meeting, an ECB consumer survey will be watched this morning for a further de-anchoring of medium term price expectations; updated GDP and employment figures are also scheduled in the euro area
  • US consumer credit and updated productivity numbers due for release

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