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German IP beat expectations in September

07 November 2022

Emily Nicol
  • Chinese exports unexpectedly fell in October
  • Japanese real wage growth expected to remain firmly negative in September; economy watchers and Reuters Tankan surveys to update on conditions at start of Q4
  • Euro area retail sales data likely to report only modest increase in September; final German CPI inflation figures set to confirm jump in October
  • UK GDP expected to have contracted in Q3 by around ½%Q/Q
  • US CPI inflation likely to have picked up on a monthly basis in October; core measure expected to remain firmly above Fed’s comfort zone

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Japanese services PMI points to renewed strength

04 November 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • German factory orders fall sharply at end of Q3 on weaker foreign demand to point to a very weak outlook for production
  • Japanese services PMIs pointed to renewed strength in activity at the start of Q4, as the lifting of international travel restrictions and the launch of the government’s domestic travel support programme boosted demand

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Fed hints at slower pace of hikes; focus turns to BoE

03 November 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • UST yields higher and USD stronger as Fed Chair Powell signals a higher terminal rate for the fed funds rate, despite the subtle hint of a slower pace of future hikes in the FOMC statement
  • BoE expected to raise rates by 75bps amid ongoing concerns about domestically-generated inflation
  • Euro area unemployment rate likely to remain at a series low 

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Germany’s trade surplus edges up in September

02 November 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • German jobless claims set to rise for the fifth consecutive month in October despite record employment level
  • UK shop prices increase at the fastest monthly pace since the BRC survey began in 2005 amid ongoing supply-side pressures
  • Fed widely expected to raise the FFR target range by 75bps for the fourth consecutive meeting to 3.75-4.00%

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All eyes on the Fed and BoE this week

31 October 2022

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Japanese IP declined in September as autos production went into reverse
  • Chinese PMIs disappointed in October as tight Covid restrictions continued to weigh on activity 
  • German retail sales beat expectations in September but downwards trend still in play

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