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Japanese underlying price pressures continue to broaden

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoJ’s trimmed mean CPI hits 2% for the first time
  • German ifo business survey likely to signal increased probability of recession; ECB bank lending survey to flag tightening of credit standards
  • Politics will remain the focus in the UK, as the markets’ preferred candidate Rishi Sunak will be confirmed as Prime Minister; data-wise, the CBI industrial trends survey is likely to highlight the ongoing challenges facing UK manufacturers

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UK set to announce new Prime Minister

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • Major government bonds continue to make gains on reports that the Fed is considering how best to manage a slowing in the pace of its rate hikes; Gilts outperform after yesterday’s confirmation that former Prime Minister Boris Johnson will not run in the Conservative leadership election, with former Chancellor Rishi Sunak looking well set to be confirmed the UK’s third PM of 2022
  • Flash PMIs improved in Japan, but set to signal a steeper pace of contraction in the euro area and UK
  • ECB likely to raise rates on Thursday by another 75bps, but BoJ on Friday set to leave its ultra-accommodative policy stance unchanged

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UK retail sales maintained a downtrend in September

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • UK retail sales fell almost 10% below the Spring 2021 peak, while UK consumer willingness to spend deteriorated further at the start of Q4 
  • Japanese core CPI inflation maintains a steady upwards trend in September
  • European Commission’s consumer confidence indicator likely to report a further deterioration in euro area household sentiment at the start of Q4

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French business surveys suggest welcome resilience

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • German PPI inflation moved sideways at a series high in September, with energy inevitably remaining a significant source of price pressure
  • EU leaders set to discuss energy markets, including possible coordinated purchases and measures to cap prices in wholesale markets

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UK CPI inflation returned back to double-digits in September

Chris Scicluna
Emily Nicol
  • BoE Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe and Executive Director for Markets Andrew Hauser to testify before Treasury Select Committee on the Bank’s recent gilt market intervention
  • BoJ likely to step up its bond buying as 10Y JGB yield breached the Bank’s 0.25% upper limit
  • Final euro area HICP inflation release likely to see the headline rate nudged slightly lower from the flash estimate, but still remain at a series high

 

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