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BoJ to leave policy unchanged

22 April 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • The BoJ's Policy Board is highly unlikely to change policy. But with the yen uncomfortably weak for Japan’s authorities, Ueda is likely to repeat that the BoJ is prepared to tighten policy sooner rather than later if necessary to counter the cost-push impact of the exchange rate. And the BoJ’s updated economic forecasts are likely to see the near-term inflation outlook slightly revised higher

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European and Japanese inflation in focus

15 April 2024

Chris Scicluna; Emily Nicol
  • In the euro area, final March inflation estimates are likely to confirm that the headline rate matched November’s 28-month low, while core inflation declined to a two-year low
  • The UK’s dataflow will provide an important update on the key variables in the MPC’s reaction function, including the latest labour market report  and inflation figures 
  • Japanese inflation is expected to confirm that headline and core inflation remained firmly above the BoJ's 2% target.

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BoJ's Summary of Opinions to be published

25 March 2024

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • In the euro area, the European Commission’s economic sentiment survey is likely to signal ongoing modest recovery momentum.
  • March inflation estimates from France, Italy and Spain might well be exaggerated by the relatively early timing of Easter this year, as well as base effects associated with the ongoing gradual withdrawal of energy support measures.
  • In the US, the highlight will be February personal income and spending figures, along with the closely-watched PCE deflators.

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BoJ to announce end to negative rates and YCC

18 March 2024

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Elsewhere, the Fed will take stock of recent upside inflation surprises, with its updated dot plots likely to signal an expectation on the FOMC of at most three rate cuts this year and another four in 2025;
  • The BoE is bound to leave Bank Rate at 5.25% again and also seems likely to leave its forward guidance broadly unchanged
  • Data-wise, final February inflation figures from the euro area should show a further easing of underlying price pressures while UK inflation should fall ½ppt or more in both headline and core terms

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Euro area core inflation should fall to a 2-year low

26 February 2024

Emily Nicol
  • In the US, the manufacturing ISM for February and advance January data for durable goods orders, goods trade, personal consumption and the PCE deflator will offer greater insight into recovery momentum.
  • A busy week in Japan will bring January inflation estimates, which are expected to see the headline CPI rate fall back below the 2% target for the first time since March 2022.
  • In the UK, the BoE’s bank lending figures are likely to report that mortgage lending remained subdued in January, while the BRC measure of shop price inflation might well report a further moderation as retailers pass on lower input costs.

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