25 February 2022
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- The flash estimates of French inflation February – the first to come from the euro area beat expectations, with the national measure rising to its highest level since 2008; French consumer spending was weaker than expected.
- UK consumer confidence plunged in February to a thirteen-month low, with expectations for personal finances down close to a record low.
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24 February 2022
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- Price of Brent crude oil currently up more than 6% on the day to around $103bbl, highest since 2014.
- Irish central bank governor Makhlouf states that ECB may still announce end to net asset purchases next month, with those purchases possibly brought to an end in Q2 (which seems too soon to us) or Q3.
- US GDP growth in Q4 set to be revised up.
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22 February 2022
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- UK government fiscal surplus in January misses forecasts but cumulative net borrowing in FY21/22 so far continues to significantly undershoot expectations, giving scope for relaxation of fiscal stance ahead.
- February ifo business survey results this morning likely to add to evidence of a pickup in German economic activity in the middle of Q1; final Italian inflation figures to confirm big pressures at the start of the year due not least to increased household energy bills.
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21 February 2022
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- German producer price inflation up to new high of 25.0%Y/Y in January.
- Euro area sentiment surveys likely to point to some stabilisation in economic activity this month; Friday brings the first flash February CPI estimate from France.
- Focus will also be on appearances from various ECB and BoE policy board members.
- In the US, an upwards revision will be made to Q4 GDP growth on Thursday, and January spending and income numbers and the PCE deflators, as well as durable goods numbers, will be watched on Friday.
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18 February 2022
Chris Scicluna
,
Emily Nicol
- UK retail sales in January reverse less than half of December’s drop to suggest ongoing loss of spending momentum into New Year.
- French unemployment drops sharply towards year-end; flash French inflation figures for January confirmed with rates well below those elsewhere in Europe.
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