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2024
December (3)
BoJ & BoE to keep policy unchanged as the Fed cuts
ECB to cut rates again; US inflation in focus ahead of next week's FOMC meeting
US payrolls due to rebound while Central Bank Governors make appearances
November (1)
Flash inflation, euro business surveys & Fed minutes due this week
October (2)
Flash October PMIs & Japan's lower house election take centre stage
ECB poised for second consecutive cut, while September CPI lands
September (5)
US payrolls, euro area inflation estimates & BoJ Tankan in focus
Flash PMIs, inflation and LDP leadership election the highlights this week
Fed set to cut rates for first time this cycle, but BoE & BoJ to stand pat
ECB to deliver a further 25bps cut, while US CPI report in focus
US payrolls & ISMs in focus along with Japanese wage figures
June (2)
Key inflation estimates from the US, euro area and Japan in focus
ECB set to cut rates by 25bps
May (2)
UK & Japanese inflation & flash May PMIs in focus
US inflation & UK labour market in focus
April (3)
Fed to keep interest rate on hold, with Powell likely to reiterate that case for a rate cut has diminished
BoJ to leave policy unchanged
European and Japanese inflation in focus
March (3)
BoJ's Summary of Opinions to be published
BoJ stocktake: As expected, a relatively dovish tightening
BoJ to announce end to negative rates and YCC
February (2)
Euro area core inflation should fall to a 2-year low
This week brings the latest inflation figures and GDP data
January (4)
Fed and BoE to leave policy unchanged
BoJ to leave door open for rate hike in the spring
Euro area, UK and Japan inflation data out this week
German factory orders point to another weak month for manufacturing
2023
December (2)
BoJ keeps its powder dry for 2024
Fed, ECB and BoE expected to leave interest rates unchanged
November (2)
Inflation data in focus this week
German factory orders beat expectations
October (4)
BoJ Policy Decision: An important further step towards policy normalisation
ECB highly likely to keep interest rates unchanged
German IP fell for a fourth consecutive month
Ongoing resilience in euro area jobs market
September (4)
Euro area HICP to report a notable step down
Fed, BoE and BoJ in action this week
ECB to hike interest rates
Policy rates approaching the peak for the cycle
August (4)
Jackson Hole the main focus this week
Key UK labour market data and inflation figures due
German IP in June misses expectations
Japan’s unemployment rate dropped
July (4)
ECB set to raise rates by 25bps
A busy week ahead for monetary policy
Inflation features in the coming week
BoJ Tankan signals improved business conditions
June (15)
German consumer confidence softens
BoJ’s estimates of underlying inflation rise to new series highs
ECB central bank forum to be closely watched
Japanese headline inflation eased in May
Will BoE hike Bank Rate by 50bps?
UK inflation surprises significantly to the upside
BoE takes the spotlight this week
BoJ resists temptation, leaving policy unchanged
ECB to hike interest rates
UK GDP posts modest growth in April
UK labour market much stronger than expected
Fed set to pause tightening cycle
Japan's labour earnings disappointed
Japan’s services PMI reported a series high
UK house prices resume downwards trend
May (7)
Tokyo inflation surprised on the downside
UK inflation surprises on the upside
Japanese GDP returned to growth in Q1
Loosening of UK labour market conditions
German factory orders plummet
ECB expected to slow pace of tightening
All eyes on the Fed and ECB policy decisions
April (4)
Inflation data in focus this week
Japan's machine orders point to soft external demand
UK retail survey points to negative trend in sales volumes
BoJ’s Tankan flags further divergence in business conditions
March (16)
Euro area headline inflation set for a sizeable decline
German inflation set to fall sharply in March
Attention on inflation data out of Japan and euro area
BoE set to raise rates by a final 25bps
All eyes on the Fed’s monetary policy decision
Will the Fed still dare to hike rates on Wednesday?
Japanese tertiary activity rebounds
All eyes on the ECB policy annoucement
ECB seems likely to deliver another 50bps hike
UK GDP beat expectations in January on special factors
Japan’s Q4 GDP growth revised away
German IP surprised on the upside, while retail sales extended downwards trend
Japanese wage numbers disappointed
The main event will be Friday's BoJ meeting
Tokyo inflation took a significant step down
UK shop price inflation jumped to a series high
February (9)
Japanese retail sales jump at the start of the year
Inflation figures in focus this week
Japanese Reuters Tankan signals ongoing manufacturing challenges
Japanese PMIs flag diverging conditions
All eyes in Japan will be on BoJ Governor nominee hearing
Japanese wages jump in nominal terms
German factory orders rebounded
All eyes turn to the ECB and BoE
Fed takes centre stage
January (17)
German retail sales slumped in December
Monetary policy decisions dominate the week ahead
Tokyo CPI inflation beat expectations
BoJ’s JGB holdings surge
BoJ’s first five-year special loan operation saw solid demand
UK retail sales fare worse than expected
Japan’s goods trade deficit narrowed
BoJ defies market pressures
UK wage growth picks up further
All eyes on the BoJ's monetary policy annoucement
UK GDP beat expectations in November
BoJ YCC framework remains under pressure
Tokyo CPI inflation jumps to a four-decade high
German IP ticks up in November
German factory orders plunged in November
Germany’s trade surplus widened to 10-month high
French inflation surprised on the downside
2022
December (9)
German ifo suggests easing in economic downturn
UK retail sales disappoint in November
All eyes on the ECB and BoE
UK inflation surprises on the downside
Monetary policy in the spotlight this week
BoJ’s consumption activity index posts a solid increase
German factory orders were a touch firmer than expected
Japan’s services PMI consistent with stagnation
Japan survey confirmed solid investment growth
November (9)
Decline in Japanese IP was steeper than expected
Japanese retail sales fall short of expectations
Euro area HICP expected to have eased in November
Japanese Q3 GDP expected to slow sharply
Updated UK fiscal strategy due this week
German IP beat expectations in September
Japanese services PMI points to renewed strength
Fed hints at slower pace of hikes; focus turns to BoE
Germany’s trade surplus edges up in September
October (17)
All eyes on the Fed and BoE this week
BoJ maintains ultra-accommodative policy stance
ECB set to raise rates by 75bps
Japanese underlying price pressures continue to broaden
UK set to announce new Prime Minister
UK retail sales maintained a downtrend in September
French business surveys suggest welcome resilience
UK CPI inflation returned back to double-digits in September
Japanese tertiary firmer than expected in August
Gilts rally as UK fiscal U-turn expected
German inflation was confirmed in double-digits in September
UK GDP data disappoint again
BoE widens scope of its Gilt purchases to include linkers
BoE to increase long-dated bond purchases
German factory orders slump in August
Tokyo CPI flags rising price pressures
UK politics to remain under the spotlight
September (15)
UK GDP revised up in Q2
ECB hawks restate case for 75bps hike next month
Deserved criticism of UK fiscal policy continues
Sterling slumped to a record low
UK consumer confidence slumps to series low
BoJ maintains ultra-accommodative policy
Survey suggests that French retail sales fell
Japan’s CPI inflation jumps to the highest in eight years
UK retail sales plunge in August
Japan’s trade deficit widened to a new record high
Japan’s core machinery orders data exceeded expectations
UK GDP growth softer than expected in July
German IP fell only slightly
German factory orders fall for sixth consecutive month
All eyes on Thursday’s ECB monetary policy announcement
August (8)
German GDP up slightly in Q2
Japanese flash PMIs slip into contractionary territory
ECB meeting account to provide further insights into debate on rates
UK CPI inflation hits double-digits in July
UK real pay falls at record rate
Japanese GDP returns to growth in Q2
Japanese economy watchers more downbeat
Japanese manufacturing PMI signals contraction in output
July (15)
All eyes on the FOMC announcement
UK retail sales fall; survey flags weakness in spending will persist
BoJ maintains ultra-accommodative policy
UK CPI inflation rose to a new 40-year high
UK labour market remains tight despite a welcome drop in inactivity
A big week for monetary policy
UK GDP confounds gloomy expectations
UK retail survey flags marked hit to discretionary spending
LDP wins clear majority in Japan’s Upper House election
Japanese household spending falls in May
German IP up, but set to subtract from GDP growth in Q2
Japanese household inflation expectations revised higher
Japanese wages miss expectations
German goods trade balance in deficit
Tokyo CPI inflation slips back on food prices
June (17)
Japanese IP posts a substantial decline
UK shop price index maintains upward trend
ECB Sintra forum key interest
Japanese inflation driven by energy and food prices
Japanese PMIs point to ongoing recovery
UK inflation steadies, but peak still months away
Macron loses parliamentary majority
BoJ keeps main policy parameters unchanged
Fed hikes by 75bps as it heads towards a restrictive stance
ECB calls emergency Governing Council meeting
UK labour market data were a mixed bag
UK GDP declines for second month in April
UK report points to continued labour market tightness
ECB to set out its plan for monetary policy normalisation
German IP posts a disappointingly subdued rise
The week ahead: ECB to signal successive rate rises
Japanese survey points to only modest capex growth
May (19)
Japanese data very much a mixed bag
Risk-on start to the week aided by Chinese Covid news
Tokyo CPI remains boosted by high food and energy prices
French consumer confidence lowest since 2014
Japanese PMIs imply recovery in services
Beijing Covid outbreak weighs on Chinese markets
UK retail sales post surprise rise
Japan’s trade deficit largest for eight years
UK inflation rises to series high
Despite weakening growth, UK labour market tightens further
Zero-Covid strategy whacks Chinese economic activity
French EU-harmonised CPI rises, while Spanish HICP bucks the trend
UK GDP up slightly in Q1, but down in March
BoJ consumption activity improved in March
Japanese household spending leaps in March as restrictions lift
Chinese trade hit by Covid restrictions
Tokyo inflation beats expectations in April
German factory orders fall further than expected
Influential member of ECB signals that tightening is imminent
April (13)
Euro area Q1 GDP growth weighed by latest pandemic wave and Ukraine war
German consumer confidence plunged to series low
Japan’s unemployment rate falls to a near-2-year low
Comfortable victory for Macron
UK retail sales volumes maintain downtrend
UK inflation beats expectations; Japanese orders plunge
UK labour market remains tight but real regular wage growth negative
UK GDP fell short of expectations in February
UK labour supply and demand imbalances continue
Japanese consumption falls
German factory orders weaker than expected
German goods trade data surprised on the upside
BoJ Tankan reports deterioration in conditions
March (18)
Japanese IP disappoints in February
German and Spanish inflation smashes expectations
German and French consumer confidence slump
BoJ conducts unlimited fixed-rate purchase operation
UK inflation rises to 30-year high
Euro area surveys to illustrate hit to confidence after Ukraine invasion
Fed raises target range for the FFR
Japan's trade deficit widest level since Covid shock
UK labour market tightened further
Monetary policy decisions dominate the week ahead
UK GDP beats expectations at start of 2022
ECB to note marked deterioration in outlook for inflation and growth
German industrial production surges in January
BoJ consumption activity index points to sharp decline in spending on services
Japan's unemployment rises
ECB policy meeting account superseded by events in Ukraine
UK shop prices point to inflationary pressures
Japanese vehicle sales remain in reverse
February (17)
Japanese retail sales hit by coronavirus wave
French inflation beats expectations
Russia launches full-blown invasion of Ukraine
UK government surplus misses forecasts
Japan’s flash PMIs signal sharp contraction in economic output
Japanese inflation drops further than expected
Japan’s trade deficit widens to an 8-year high
UK inflation once again exceeds expectations
Japanese GDP rebounds in Q4; UK employment edges down
ECB speak and FOMC minutes focus this week
Lagarde argues for gradual approach to normalisation
BoJ Governor dismisses need for tighter policy
Japanese household spending steady in December
Japanese consumption steady in December
German factory orders beat expectations
BoE to hike Bank Rate for the second successive meeting
Japan's manufacturing PMI signals strongest output growth since 2014
January (13)
Japan's retail sales and IP weaken in December
French GDP rose above the pre-pandemic level
Fed signals likelihood of March rate lift-off
Japan's flash PMIs highlight the new pandemic hit to services
UK retail sales plunge in December
German PPI smashes records to flag upside risks to CPI
UK inflation data strengthen case for BoE rate hike next month
BoJ slightly more upbeat but inevitably leaves policy unchanged
Japan's tertiary and machine orders suggest strong rebound in Q4
UK GDP above pre-crisis level
BoJ raises economic assessment for all nine regions
The BoJ signals a pickup in Japanese consumption
US and Chinese inflation data key focus in the week ahead
2018
December (2)
May win fails to reduce Brexit uncertainty
May confidence vote: Update
July (2)
End of term report: Can Brexit make the grade?
Brexit: May takes a risky shot at goal
June (1)
Brexit watch: summer promises fireworks
May (1)
Brexit faces gridlock
April (1)
Brexit: how the drama might unfold
March (1)
Irish stew promises Brexit summit indigestion
February (1)
The “Road to Brexit” has yet to be paved
January (1)
Brexit: The UK government has plenty on its plate in 2018
2017
December (1)
Morning comment: No BoJ surprises
September (2)
Theresa May offers only a little new on Brexit
ECB: Not yet ready to set next steps
June (1)
Euro area shows the UK how it’s done
March (2)
The ECB: No need to rush
Japan: Everything under control in 2017?
February (1)
Euro area economic outlook: Someway short of scintillating
January (1)
Time for a change of heart at the ECB?
2016
December (2)
The euro area in 2017 - Business as usual?
Will Renzi's referendum complicate Draghi's decision?
November (3)
The euro area after Trump
OBR lays bare Brexit costs
Chancellor constrained by Brexit hit to public finances
October (4)
Easy does it for the MPC
Brexit: Wishful thinking
The ECB – Not the time for tapering
Sterling – far from flash
September (2)
Kuroda does what he can (but it won’t be enough)
BoJ: Scraping the barrel?
August (1)
Can the BoJ reduce collateral damage?
July (2)
Post-Brexit Blues
Political Anarchy, Economic Calamity
June (2)
Recession, secession and political uncertainty: The post-Brexit UK
It’s the stupid politics, stupid
March (1)
ECB Barrel Scraping Getting Louder?
February (2)
Euro banks' equity valuations - credit still to catch up?
Market-testing the euro area recovery
January (1)
The BoJ and its (sort of) negative interest rate
2015
August (1)
Japan: Recovery in recess
June (1)
Greece's threat of euro exit has cheated it of a recovery
April (3)
Grexit: Avoiding the slippery slope
BoJ: The end of the easy bit?
UK election: Political risks rising
March (1)
Pfandbriefbank – not another Heta?
January (2)
Will Syriza's bark be worse than its bite?
ECB QE: Bazooka or fudge?
2014
December (2)
Draghi's QE Compromise
Abe: Third time lucky?
November (1)
Jump-starting Germany: A menu for Merkel
October (3)
Kuroda waves his wand again
Rouble Trouble
The BoJ's Tankan Survey: Steady as she goes
September (2)
Draghi's ECB: Bottom of the table
ECB Preview: Will Draghi rise to the occasion?
August (3)
UK Bank Rate: Slackers hold the key
Japan's Q2 GDP: No show-stopper
TLTROs: Never Mind the Placebo
July (2)
Euro area outlook: Firmer growth, subdued inflation
The Tankan and QQE: Carry on Regardless
June (3)
Sizing up the ECB’s policy package
Abe’s 3rd Arrow: Flying or Dying?
Comfortable Easing Ahead for the ECB
May (2)
The ECB waiting game
The ECB’s waiting game
April (1)
UK property market: More still than sparkling
January (4)
UK rates: No change in 2014?
Abenomics: What follows the Money? A Response
Abenomics: What follows the Money?
Italian and Spanish spreads: Further to fall?
2013
December (1)
Japan: Q313 Flow of Funds
November (1)
Abe & the Consumption Tax: No Nineties Throwback
October (1)
A Tale of Two Cities
September (5)
QQE in action: The BoJ's flow of funds data
Did the Fed bottle it?
Abe & the Consumption Tax: No Nineties Throwback
Euro Banks: Time for another check-up
Abenomics - FAQs
August (1)
BoJ: Waiting for wage growth
June (5)
RBS - Is George's Heart Really In A Break-Up?
Euro area economic forecasts: A little light at the end of the tunnel
Achtung Abe!!
Floods in Germany: No impact on ECB policy
Is Abenomics failing?
May (8)
JGBs: Banking on the BoJ
Weakness in the euro area's core: Structural or cyclical?
JGBs: BoJ provides the ultimate backstop
Japan: Is the virtuous cycle within reach?
ECB policy: Looking at the negatives
ECB: Filling the BoJ's old boots?
ECB: Reloading the conventional measures
ECB: More than a rate cut?
April (5)
Germany’s new anti-euro party: The saviour of the single currency?
Corporate Japan: Far from a curse
Wow, Kuroda!
The BoJ: Over-inflated expectations?
Cyprus’ missed opportunity?
March (11)
Euro area post-Cyprus: Re-pricing of risks
UK banks – Safety first
Cyprus: A dark future within the euro area
It’s the euro that needs a solidarity fund
The madness of Chancellor George
Cyprus: A Haircut In All But Name
Banking union: Deflecting the euro area’s cosmic rock
UK inflation: Why wages matter
The Bank of Japan: Counting on Kuroda
BoE: Only a matter of time
ECB: Tailoring rates getting increasingly challenging
February (3)
France: How much should we worry?
The strong euro: Is it a game changer for the ECB?
Japan: Maintaining the momentum
January (4)
The Bank of Japan: Great Expectations?
New Year, New BoJ?
European banks – getting to the core of subdued debt issuance
Quarterly Global Economic Outlook (Q1 2013)
Morning comment: No BoJ surprises
21 December 2017
Chris Scicluna
After the BoJ pulled no surprises overnight, all eyes remain on the bond market.
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