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Jackson Hole the main focus this week

21 August 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • Jackson Hole is the main focus this week. With rates likely close to (or already at) their peak for this cycle, Fed Chair Powell, and ECB President Lagarde, have the opportunity on Friday to give their thoughts about both the short- and medium-term monetary policy outlook. 
  • Data-wise, the flash August PMIs from Europe and Japan will be of most interest for timely signals on both economic activity and price developments in the middle of Q3. 

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Key UK labour market data and inflation figures due

14 August 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • The euro area economic dataflow will bring the ZEW survey, euro area June IP as well as employment and updated GDP for Q2, June goods trade and final euro area July inflation data.
  • In Japan, tomorrow will bring the first estimate of Q2 GDP,the Reuters Tankan survey and the July national CPI report.
  • In the US, tomorrow brings July’s retail sales report, while Wednesday is the other main day bringing Fed minutes and July IP and housing starts.

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German IP in June misses expectations

07 August 2023

Chris Scicluna
  • Euro area sentix investor sentiment index beats expectations.
  • The BoJ’s real consumption activity index falls in June to be consistent with a soft end to Q2 for consumer spending. 
  • UK Q2 GDP are due on Friday and, once again, are likely to report minimal growth if any at all.

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Japan’s unemployment rate dropped

01 August 2023

Chris Scicluna
, 
Emily Nicol
  • Euro area unemployment figures are expected to be consistent with a tight labour market
  • The BRC survey showed that UK shop price inflation eased to lowest since December
  • Focus in the US will be on the manufacturing ISM survey

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ECB set to raise rates by 25bps

27 July 2023

Emily Nicol
, 
Chris Scicluna
  • After the Fed resumed its tightening cycle yesterday, the ECB is similarly expected to hike rates by 25bps, with Lagarde to signal that further tightening in September is very possible if not nailed on
  • German consumer confidence was a touch firmer than expected 
  • UK retail sector survey likely to signal that household spending on goods remained subdued at the start of Q3
  • The first estimate of US Q2 GDP is expected to report another quarter of solid growth

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