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2025

2024

2023

  • Economic Commentary - Bracing for 2025

    Economic Commentary - Bracing for 2025

    6 January 2025 489 KB PDF
    • “Trump 2.0” impacts as main theme for 2025
    • Major focus in Japan is how many more interest rate hikes are possible
    • BOJ can explore rate hikes in 2025 if US economy remains firm
  • Daiwa's View - Initial thoughts on BoJ Finances

    Daiwa's View - Initial thoughts on BoJ Finances

    27 December 2024 503 KB PDF
    • BOJ releases latest simulations for its balance sheet, financial position, and currency confidence
    • Adding current terminal rate assumed by market to long/short-term yield spread of +0.25 to +0.75ppt, expect 10yr JGB yield range of 1.0% to 1.5% for now
  • Economic Commentary - Ueda speaks at Keidanren

    Economic Commentary - Ueda speaks at Keidanren

    26 December 2024 606 KB PDF
    • Steady progress toward achieving “price stability target” in 2024
    • Now monitoring economic policies of next US administration, spring 2025 labor-management wage talks
    • Wage hikes to take hold, BOJ to continue raising interest rates in 2025
    • Positive corporate behavior and realization of 2% price target will lead to increase in Japan’s growth potential
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Ueda’s Dec press conference

    Daiwa's Economic View - Ueda’s Dec press conference

    20 December 2024 448 KB PDF
    • Need to assess wages, US economy as reason for not hiking rates in Dec
    • Full picture for spring labor-management talks in Mar or April, can potentially grasp wage momentum even earlier
    • BOJ exploring possibility of raising rates within FY24, but has not decided on timing
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ; broad-perspective review of monetary policy

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ; broad-perspective review of monetary policy

    19 December 2024 609 KB PDF
    • BOJ decides to stand pat at Dec 2024 meeting, but board member Tamura proposes rate hike
    • In 2025, US rate cutting to slow, while BOJ rate hiking policy continues
    • Decision on additional interest rate hike likely in Jan-Mar, depending on wages, US economy
    • Historic broad-perspective review of monetary policy; implications for conduct of future monetary policy include ensuring of some room to maneuver
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Analysis of BoJ ahead of 2025

    Daiwa's Economic View - Analysis of BoJ ahead of 2025

    16 December 2024 522 KB PDF
    • BoJ in 2024: Implemented two interest rate hikes without delay; Trauma of summer 2024 market turmoil one reason why BoJ in no hurry to hike rates
    • Developments outside of Japan in 2024: US economy remains resilient; Prepare for market trend changes due to “Trump 2.0”
    • BoJ communicating more carefully, focus in Japan on wage hike sustainability 
    • BoJ likely to skip rate hike in Dec, target hike in Jan-Mar 2025, while monitoring conditions in US
  • Economic Commentary - Tankan analysis ahead of BoJ meeting

    Economic Commentary - Tankan analysis ahead of BoJ meeting

    13 December 2024 558 KB PDF
    • B0J is communicating carefully; Some support a Dec rate hike, but the bank staff are in no hurry and likely to hold off
    • BoJ considering a rate hike within FY24, but has yet to settle on timing
    • Tankan supports BoJ's view that domestic economy is on track No change in inflation expectations, companies continue passing on higher prices
    • Business sentiment better than expected; recurring profit has also improved from the last survey
  • Daiwa's View - Will there be a resurgence of speculative selling of the yen?

    Daiwa's View - Will there be a resurgence of speculative selling of the yen?

    11 December 2024 424 KB PDF
    • A substantial decline in volatility would be necessary