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Daiwa's Economic View - Business Outlook Survey: Confirms steady corporate trends
12 September 2025
474 KB
PDF
Business sentiment improved against backdrop of US/Japan tariff agreement
Earnings levels sufficient for securing funds for wage hikes
Corporate trends remain solid, bolstering BOJ’s case for hiking rates, but US economy concerns persist
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Daiwa's Economic View - Points of interest regarding Sep BOJ MPM: US economy and political situation in Japan will be key to next rate hike
10 September 2025
506 KB
PDF
BOJ expected to maintain status quo, but we should keep an eye out for any changes in its assessment of US economy
Strong corporate trends likely in Oct
Of key importance going forward will be US economy and Japanese political landscape
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Abe's Comment - PM Ishiba announces resignation
8 September 2025
277 KB
PDF
Ishiba decided to step down amid strong calls from within LDP to hold him accountable for major defeats in 2024/2025 elections
Leading candidates for next leadership election incl. Koizumi, Takaichi
Potential for Japan equities to rally on expectations for political change
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FX Pulse - Takaichi or Koizumi?
8 September 2025
438 KB
PDF
Time to trade on speculation over next LDP president
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Daiwa's Economic View - Outlook for fiscal, monetary policies with PM Ishiba stepping down
8 September 2025
415 KB
PDF
LDP leadership race likely to center on Koizumi and Takaichi; whether election uses “full-scale” or “simplified” voting will impact timing of supplementary budget
Fiscal policy: mild under Koizumi, coordination with DPP under Takaichi
Monetary policy faces narrow path for Oct rate hike, contingent on administration continuity and political calenda
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Daiwa's View - Surging super-long JGB yields: Really due to just fiscal concerns?
5 September 2025
976 KB
PDF
Recent super-long JGB yield surge has shifted from JGB-led to OIS-led
This curious shift may reflect changing confidence in monetary policy
Timely, appropriate additional rate hikes could increase confidence in monetary policy; JGB yield curve may twist/flatten if concerns about falling behind curve subside
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Daiwa's View - Meeting between PM Ishiba and BOJ Governor Ueda: Tone raised by one notch
4 September 2025
389 KB
PDF
Explicitly mentioned that they “talked about forex”
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Daiwa's Economic View - Next major political event on 8 Sep: Will LDP hold party leadership election?
3 September 2025
400 KB
PDF
At the LDP’s 2 Sep joint plenary meeting, PM Ishiba announced his intention to remain in office; also indicated his intention to ask Secretary-General Moriyama, who had expressed his intention to resign, to stay in office
Next focus on whether LDP will hold extraordinary party leadership election (announcement expected on evening of 8 Sep)
If extraordinary LDP party leadership election shelved, market concerns over fiscal deterioration should ease; Once decision to hold election is made, caution regarding fiscal expansion would persist
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