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Daiwa's View - USD-denominated super-long JGB yields
10 July 2025
425 KB
PDF
Super-long JGB yields rose significantly to around 3.0%, but generally valued as fair from global balance perspective
Meanwhile, BOJ’s low policy interest rate stands out globally, making carry & roll-down returns on super-long JGBs very attractive
Once market volatility subsides, both domestic and foreign investors likely to focus more on this investment appeal
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Daiwa's Economic View - LDP/Komeito may lose Upper House majority; possible upward pressure on JGB yields due to additional coalition partner(s)
10 July 2025
476 KB
PDF
Likely to consider expanded coalition after election
LDP/Komeito + DPP as one coalition option; expect upward pressure on JGB yields for now
Focus on (1) whether DPP will reconsider its fiscal stimulus pledge in light of media reports of “Japanese version of Truss shock” and (2) possible LDP/Komeito + Japan Innovation Party coalition
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Daiwa's Economic View - Japanese economy under Trump tariffs: Status and outlook (1)
10 July 2025
513 KB
PDF
Japan's economy remains upbeat, but tariff impact could emerge
Balance of economic risks skews sharply to downside
New Trump tariffs would depress Japan's real GDP by around 1.1pp
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Daiwa's View - Surge in 30Y JGB yield, and interview with BOJ policy board member Koeda
9 July 2025
812 KB
PDF
30Y JGB yield hit record high on compound basis
Dip-buying predominant with US yields
In the first solo interview with BOJ policy board member Junko Koeda since her appointment, she comments that food prices have risen more than expected, and that the BOJ is closely monitoring impact on underlying inflation
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Daiwa's View - Sudden rise in super-long JGB yields and fiscal impact
8 July 2025
811 KB
PDF
Super-long JGB yields rose sharply again in Tokyo on 7 July
Fiscal policies of each party in Upper House election
1% deterioration in Japan’s fiscal balance results in 26bp JGB yield rise
July JGB market aware of political risks
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Economic Commentary - Speech by BOJ’s Takata: Imminent risk balance shift towards neutral?
4 July 2025
384 KB
PDF
No change to BOJ’s wait-and-see stance for now
Neutral economic/price risk balance possible depending on outcome for US-Japan tariff negotiations
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Daiwa's Economic View - Tax revenue overshoot not enough to cover LDP/Komeito cash handout promise
4 July 2025
458 KB
PDF
Ruling parties planning cash handouts to curry favor ahead of Upper House election, but expected FY24 tax revenue surplus not enough to cover those costs; Upper House election looking increasingly unfavorable for ruling parties
Tax revenue increase positive for nation’s finances, but if increase driven by cost-push inflation, portion of measures to address high prices could be cancelled out
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Daiwa's Economic View - Five scenarios for US-Japan tariff negotiations and impact on Japanese economy
3 July 2025
472 KB
PDF
Tariff agreement by 9 July now looks less likely
If additional tariffs remain in place, would depress real GDP by 1.1ppt
Even in this scenario, BOJ could explore rate hike in Jan-Mar 2026
No direct impact from Trump tariffs even on autos at this point
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