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2025

2024

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  • Daiwa's Economic View - Risk of higher-than-expected prices due to weak yen

    Daiwa's Economic View - Risk of higher-than-expected prices due to weak yen

    14 October 2025 557 KB PDF
    • Price increases may exceed Outlook Report forecasts due to current depreciation pressure on yen
    • Will persistent yen weakness push up FY26 CPI by +0.2%?
    • Weak yen could be BOJ’s trump card for hiking interest rates
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Prolonged concerns about fiscal expansion, political instability due to LDP-Komeito breakup

    Daiwa's Economic View - Prolonged concerns about fiscal expansion, political instability due to LDP-Komeito breakup

    14 October 2025 411 KB PDF
    • Komeito’s departure from LDP-Komeito coalition is already a reality
    • Takaichi still favorite to become Prime Minister; LDP must negotiate with multiple opposition parties to pass budgets, bills in the Diet
    • Fiscal expansion/political instability concerns likely to persist over medium/long term, putting upward pressure on long/super-long JGB yields
  • Daiwa Economic View: Potential risk of Komeito leaving coalition deserves more attention than DPP leader Tamaki's political future

    Daiwa Economic View: Potential risk of Komeito leaving coalition deserves more attention than DPP leader Tamaki's political future

    10 October 2025 392 KB PDF
    • Following Takaichi’s victory in LDP presidential election, market is focused on potential coalition with DPP and future of its leader Tamaki, but likelihood of Tamaki becoming Finance Minister or Prime Minister is small
    • The more pressing issue warranting attention is potential risk of Komeito leaving coalition due to serious conflict with LDP
    • There are already emerging concerns about schedule for formulating budget and other matters being delayed; there would be sudden rise in political uncertainty if Komeito actually left coalition
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ branch managers' meeting report (Oct): Progress on track

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ branch managers' meeting report (Oct): Progress on track

    7 October 2025 398 KB PDF
    • Confirmation that progress with Japanese economy and prices appears to be on track with regard to BOJ outlook
    • While uncertainties remain concerning next year's wage hikes, likelihood of maintaining high wage hikes is increasing
    • Report suggests that prices are moving in line with BOJ projections
  • Daiwa's View - Market reaction to Takaichi’s appointment as LDP President, inflation risks

    Daiwa's View - Market reaction to Takaichi’s appointment as LDP President, inflation risks

    7 October 2025 756 KB PDF
    • Stock prices soar while JGBs, yen both fall
    • Concerns minimal as long as equities keep rising, but if equities, JGBs, and yen all turn lower, fears of “falling behind the curve” could emerge, necessitating close monitoring of market trends
    • Unlike early days of Abenomics, fiscal stimulus more likely to increase inflation amid current labor supply constraints
  • Daiwa's View - Takaichi elected LDP leader: Bond market impact

    Daiwa's View - Takaichi elected LDP leader: Bond market impact

    6 October 2025 688 KB PDF
    • Takaichi's surprise win was barely priced in by market; we think 30yr yield could rise around 10bp at start of week
    • Initial overreaction could unwind given appointment of former finance ministers to key LDP positions, political constraints facing minority government
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Considering next rate hike following press conferences by Ueda, Takaichi

    Daiwa's Economic View - Considering next rate hike following press conferences by Ueda, Takaichi

    6 October 2025 515 KB PDF
    • BOJ Governor Ueda could be most dovish board member following dovish press conference
    • Political factors could delay rate hikes; key point for government/BOJ is confidence in stable growth path even amid tariffs
    • Domestic economy/prices: Conditions warranting early rate hike
    • Expect next rate hike within this year; still see 1% as terminal rate for rate hikes
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Fiscal policy of new Takaichi administration and its impact on JGB market

    Daiwa's Economic View - Fiscal policy of new Takaichi administration and its impact on JGB market

    6 October 2025 400 KB PDF
    • Takaichi pulled off a surprise victory, becoming the new LDP President, but she will likely follow a realistic and moderate path regarding fiscal policy
    • Fiscal spending in FY25 supplementary budget estimated to be around Y16-18tn; scale of calendar-based market issuance could remain flat y/y, or see a slight increase
    • In the medium to long term, fiscal policy and JGB issuance are expected to be influenced by expansion of the ruling coalition, easing of cost-push inflation, and success or failure of growth investments