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2024

2023

  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    26 March 2024 375 KB PDF
    • Key differences between the yen and euro
    • Corporate price setting behavior determines major difference between the two currencies
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    21 March 2024 997 KB PDF
    • Past quantitative easing and its effects
    • JGB purchases by BOJ effective in lowering long-term JGB yields
    • These purchases exerted downward pressure of about -1% on average
    • Stronger effect when purchasing JGBs with longer maturities
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    21 March 2024 758 KB PDF
    • BOJ's March policy meeting: Decision to exit NIRP
    • Yields declined in reaction to the first rate hike in 17 years
    • This change in framework has serious longer-term implications and we should not overemphasize the initial decline in yields supported by generous transition measures
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    18 March 2024 435 KB PDF
    • Cherry blossoms blooming: BOJ prepares to end NIRP
    • Environment for policy normalization in place after BOJ confirms big wage hikes RENGO’s first tally shows average wage increase of 5.28%
    • Five questions to answer at BOJ’s March meeting Market stability maintained via JGB purchases even if YCC eliminated Market’s main concern is future of interest rates (= rate hiking path)
    • Expect Ueda to provide some hints about future at post-meeting press conference
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    15 March 2024 317 KB PDF
    • Better-than-expected US PPI lifts US 10yr Treasury yield to upper end of range
    • Strong PPI reduces rate cut expectations; US 10yr Treasury yield approaches upper end of range
    • However, 10yr real rate rise stalled just before 2%, as it did last month
    • As long as rate cutting orientation unchanged, see BEI 2.3 + real rate 2 ≈ 4.3% as key resistance line; may need to discuss r* increase to go beyond 2.4 + 2.1 ≈ 4.5%
  • Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

    Berkshire Hathaway Inc.

    14 March 2024 411 KB PDF
    • Cash balance hits new records
    • FY23 Net Earnings turned positive to $96.2bn. Investment and derivatives gains were $58.9bn
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    13 March 2024 461 KB PDF
    • Increasing news about shift to “quantity”
    • Surprise during time of first rate hike in 17 years has potential to cause troublesome issues
  • Monthly MBS Issue

    Monthly MBS Issue

    13 March 2024 1100 KB PDF
    • Issue size Y55.6bn, reflecting impact of new Flat 35 Child Rearing Plus program