Tokyo Research

FILTER DOCUMENTS

Category Clear

FILTER DOCUMENTS

Archive Reset

2024

2023

  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    8 August 2024 443 KB PDF
    • Fed to begin cutting rates in Sep; expect 5 - 10 cuts through end-Mar 2025 
    • Changes/caveats have emerged for BoJ’s "on track"/"upside risk" assumptions that drove July rate hike; further hike in 2024 now less likely
  • Politics Watch

    Politics Watch

    8 August 2024 327 KB PDF
    • Future trends for LDP presidential election
  • Iwashita’s Economic & Market Watch

    Iwashita’s Economic & Market Watch

    2 August 2024 404 KB PDF
    • Ueda-led BOJ likely to enter gradual rate-hiking phase
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    31 July 2024 676 KB PDF
    • BoJ opted to hike again at July MPM, in line with prior media reports; consistent with Outlook Report, reflects BoJ’s call that time was right to scale back easing; plans to cut JGB purchases to around Y3tn per month in Jan-Mar 2026 as expected
    • July Outlook Report forecasts sustained trend inflation of around 2%; BoJ to monitor service prices, consumer spending trends in gauging need for next rate hike; explanation of policy conduct, hawkish tone signal intent to continue normalizing
  • Iwashita's Economic & Market Watch

    Iwashita's Economic & Market Watch

    26 July 2024 364 KB PDF
    • BoJ to wait until last minute before making July rate hike decision
  • Daiwa's View - Consensus forming for BoJ’s QT; anticipate yield curve flattening pressure

    Daiwa's View - Consensus forming for BoJ’s QT; anticipate yield curve flattening pressure

    24 July 2024 452 KB PDF
    • “Bond Market Group” meeting minutes include opinion BoJ should lower its monthly JGB purchase amount to about ¥3.0tn 
    • In that case, BoJ’s holdings of JGBs would decline to ¥523tn (48% of all JGBs outstanding) in two years
    • Strong impact on medium- to long-term zone within JGB maturity structure; to act as yield curve flattening factor
  • Daiwa's View - Two consecutive days of currency intervention; what will BoJ do?

    Daiwa's View - Two consecutive days of currency intervention; what will BoJ do?

    17 July 2024 362 KB PDF
    • Changes in BoJ’s current account balances imply intervention on a scale of about Y2tn on 12 July, as well
    • Line of defense for USD/JPY rate is around Y159; EUR/JPY trends also warrant attention
    • Opinions regarding July rate hike by BoJ may be divided, but, in 2022, easing was modified after intervention
  • Daiwa's View - Intervention, rate check, then intervention again?

    Daiwa's View - Intervention, rate check, then intervention again?

    16 July 2024 399 KB PDF
    • It is highly likely that currency intervention was conducted on the 11th, but determining whether it occurred on the 12th is difficult