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Daiwa's View
8 August 2024
443 KB
PDF
Fed to begin cutting rates in Sep; expect 5 - 10 cuts through end-Mar 2025
Changes/caveats have emerged for BoJ’s "on track"/"upside risk" assumptions that drove July rate hike; further hike in 2024 now less likely
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Politics Watch
8 August 2024
327 KB
PDF
Future trends for LDP presidential election
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Iwashita’s Economic & Market Watch
2 August 2024
404 KB
PDF
Ueda-led BOJ likely to enter gradual rate-hiking phase
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Euro wrap-up
31 July 2024
676 KB
PDF
BoJ opted to hike again at July MPM, in line with prior media reports; consistent with Outlook Report, reflects BoJ’s call that time was right to scale back easing; plans to cut JGB purchases to around Y3tn per month in Jan-Mar 2026 as expected
July Outlook Report forecasts sustained trend inflation of around 2%; BoJ to monitor service prices, consumer spending trends in gauging need for next rate hike; explanation of policy conduct, hawkish tone signal intent to continue normalizing
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Iwashita's Economic & Market Watch
26 July 2024
364 KB
PDF
BoJ to wait until last minute before making July rate hike decision
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Daiwa's View - Consensus forming for BoJ’s QT; anticipate yield curve flattening pressure
24 July 2024
452 KB
PDF
“Bond Market Group” meeting minutes include opinion BoJ should lower its monthly JGB purchase amount to about ¥3.0tn
In that case, BoJ’s holdings of JGBs would decline to ¥523tn (48% of all JGBs outstanding) in two years
Strong impact on medium- to long-term zone within JGB maturity structure; to act as yield curve flattening factor
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Daiwa's View - Two consecutive days of currency intervention; what will BoJ do?
17 July 2024
362 KB
PDF
Changes in BoJ’s current account balances imply intervention on a scale of about Y2tn on 12 July, as well
Line of defense for USD/JPY rate is around Y159; EUR/JPY trends also warrant attention
Opinions regarding July rate hike by BoJ may be divided, but, in 2022, easing was modified after intervention
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Daiwa's View - Intervention, rate check, then intervention again?
16 July 2024
399 KB
PDF
It is highly likely that currency intervention was conducted on the 11th, but determining whether it occurred on the 12th is difficult
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