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2022

2021

  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    17 December 2021 646 KB PDF
    • Is Fed Chair Jerome Powell facing a conundrum?
    • Chair Powell referred to overseas supply/demand factors and the neutral interest rate when explaining reasons for decline in long-term yields.
  • Outlook for 20Y JGB auction

    Outlook for 20Y JGB auction

    15 December 2021 743 KB PDF
    • Absolute levels are a concern, but relative value should make this an easy buy.
    • Shrinkage of special pandemic support programs may be a positive for long-term and superlong JGBs.
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    15 December 2021 957 KB PDF
    • Unexpected decline in inflation expectations.
    • Could be a reflection of the Fed’s hawkish stance or faster tapering?
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    10 December 2021 928 KB PDF
    • Have JGBs started to outperform US Treasuries?
    • Possibility of more active investment in bonds in Japan and Europe, where monetary policy stance differs from the Fed’s.
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    8 December 2021 619 KB PDF
    • ‘Kiss of the Devil’ and reduction of balance sheet ahead of rate hikes.
    • Looks correct theoretically, but entails substantial downside risk.
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    7 December 2021 879 KB PDF
    • Flattening is led by term premium.
    • Constraints on forward yields may persist into next year.
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    2 December 2021 861 KB PDF
    • Back to intense bull flattening.
    • Forward yields would probably remain low in the near term.
  • Daiwa's View

    Daiwa's View

    1 December 2021 619 KB PDF
    • Implications of Meeting of JGB Market Special Participants and Meeting of JGB Investors.
    • Increase in issuance of 40-year JGBs gained considerable support.