Tokyo Research

FILTER DOCUMENTS

Category Clear

FILTER DOCUMENTS

Archive Reset

2026

2025

Subscribe to RSS feed
  • Daiwa's View - Meetings of JGB Market Special Participants/JGB Investors: The latest measures are appropriate, but...

    Daiwa's View - Meetings of JGB Market Special Participants/JGB Investors: The latest measures are appropriate, but...

    28 November 2025 356 KB PDF
    • The proposals, such as increasing short- to medium-term JGB issuance and introducing semi-annual reviews, are welcomed as appropriate and proactive responses to market changes
    • However, if the market were to develop the habit of demanding public intervention from MOF when market intervention by BOJ has begun to decrease, that would be like putting the cart before the horse
    • To avoid dependence on the public sector, decisions about reductions to JGB issuance must proceed by carefully distinguishing between structural changes and temporary factors during transitional periods
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Japan's economic/price outlooks and BOJ's rate hiking path

    Daiwa's Economic View - Japan's economic/price outlooks and BOJ's rate hiking path

    26 November 2025 600 KB PDF
    • Japan’s economy expected to grow at rate exceeding its potential growth rate, driven primarily by domestic demand
    • Government’s economic measures have led to downward price outlook revisions; Core CPI expected to clearly fall below 2% from 2026
    • Maintain our view that policy interest rate will rise to +1% in Jul-Sep 2026; That said, potential barriers include inflation expectations, communication with government
  • Daiwa’s Economic View - Economic measures put high prices and oppositions’ requests ahead of Takaichi’s agenda

    Daiwa’s Economic View - Economic measures put high prices and oppositions’ requests ahead of Takaichi’s agenda

    26 November 2025 506 KB PDF
    • FY25 supplementary budget for comprehensive economic measures includes Y3.8tn increase in expenditures compared to FY24, but breakdown consists mainly of measures addressing high prices
    • Some fiscal stimulus under Takaichi administration will have funding amounts reconsidered in initial budget for FY26
    • Calendar-based market issuance amount for JGB issuance plan remains unchanged for FY25 supplementary budget; initial budget for FY26 may include increased issuance for 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y JGBs, decreased issuance for 20yr JGBs
  • FX Pulse - Accelerating yen depreciation

    FX Pulse - Accelerating yen depreciation

    25 November 2025 512 KB PDF
    • Yen depreciation has gained momentum in the absence of strong warnings by the government regarding forex rates
    • Expansionary fiscal policy is also fueling yen weakness, running counter to measures to address inflation
  • Daiwa's Economic View - JGB issuance plan outlook for FY25 supplementary budget, FY26 initial budget

    Daiwa's Economic View - JGB issuance plan outlook for FY25 supplementary budget, FY26 initial budget

    14 November 2025 499 KB PDF
    • If comprehensive economic measures portion of FY25 supplementary budget amounts to Y18tn in expenditures, total JGB issuance will increase Y12-13tn; calendar-based market issuance amount may not increase, but increased issuance for 2yr/5yr JGBs and TBs possible
    • As for FY26 initial budget, due to tax cuts, increased interest payments, free school tuition, and reflecting higher prices in expenditures, new JGB issuance likely to reach mid-Y30tn range; no increase in calendar-based market issuance, but increased issuance of 2yr/5yr JGBs and TBs possible
  • Daiwa's View - Downward bias in underlying inflation metrics

    Daiwa's View - Downward bias in underlying inflation metrics

    13 November 2025 708 KB PDF
    • Underlying inflation indicators exhibit price stickiness
    • Exclusion of food/high weighting for imputed rents creates downward bias
    • Time to also focus on headline CPI?
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Scale of comprehensive economic measures likely around Y18tn; some policies likely to be included in FY26 initial budget

    Daiwa's Economic View - Scale of comprehensive economic measures likely around Y18tn; some policies likely to be included in FY26 initial budget

    13 November 2025 503 KB PDF
    • Comprehensive economic measures in FY25 supplementary budget expected to include roughly Y18tn in expenditures
    • Fiscal support continues for same challenges as before (addressing high prices, hiking wages), while amounts for growth investment/crisis management investment likely to increase
    • Some policies likely to be included in FY26 initial budget; await verification of effectiveness of fiscal policies advocated by JIP
  • Daiwa's View - Fiscal capacity and JGB market

    Daiwa's View - Fiscal capacity and JGB market

    11 November 2025 579 KB PDF
    • Fiscal capacity from perspective of Domar condition; importance of achieving primary balance surplus
    • Economic stimulus package of around Y10tn would have only limited impact on JGB market
    • Risk of 10-year JGB yield topping 2%