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Daiwa's View
21 March 2024
758 KB
PDF
BOJ's March policy meeting: Decision to exit NIRP
Yields declined in reaction to the first rate hike in 17 years
This change in framework has serious longer-term implications and we should not overemphasize the initial decline in yields supported by generous transition measures
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Daiwa's View
18 March 2024
435 KB
PDF
Cherry blossoms blooming: BOJ prepares to end NIRP
Environment for policy normalization in place after BOJ confirms big wage hikes RENGO’s first tally shows average wage increase of 5.28%
Five questions to answer at BOJ’s March meeting Market stability maintained via JGB purchases even if YCC eliminated Market’s main concern is future of interest rates (= rate hiking path)
Expect Ueda to provide some hints about future at post-meeting press conference
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Daiwa's View
15 March 2024
317 KB
PDF
Better-than-expected US PPI lifts US 10yr Treasury yield to upper end of range
Strong PPI reduces rate cut expectations; US 10yr Treasury yield approaches upper end of range
However, 10yr real rate rise stalled just before 2%, as it did last month
As long as rate cutting orientation unchanged, see BEI 2.3 + real rate 2 ≈ 4.3% as key resistance line; may need to discuss r* increase to go beyond 2.4 + 2.1 ≈ 4.5%
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Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
14 March 2024
411 KB
PDF
Cash balance hits new records
FY23 Net Earnings turned positive to $96.2bn. Investment and derivatives gains were $58.9bn
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Daiwa's View
13 March 2024
461 KB
PDF
Increasing news about shift to “quantity”
Surprise during time of first rate hike in 17 years has potential to cause troublesome issues
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Monthly MBS Issue
13 March 2024
1100 KB
PDF
Issue size Y55.6bn, reflecting impact of new Flat 35 Child Rearing Plus program
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Daiwa's View
11 March 2024
380 KB
PDF
Japan/US central banks dialing-back, Feb US jobs data: Fading concerns that jobs market is too strong
“Gangbusters” Jan jobs data revised significantly lower
Gap between establishment survey and household survey has widened to point investors can no longer overlook; household survey suggests further jobs market easing (qualitative deterioration)
BOJ’s easing framework change from YCC/negative rates to quantitative easing = dialing back one step?
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Daiwa's View
8 March 2024
406 KB
PDF
Follow-up: Update on new NISA-induced yen selling
New NISA increased investment in cumulative investments by about Y300bn
Investments made via growth investment quota have not increased substantially
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