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2025

2024

  • Daiwa's View - Initial thoughts on BoJ Finances

    Daiwa's View - Initial thoughts on BoJ Finances

    27 December 2024 503 KB PDF
    • BOJ releases latest simulations for its balance sheet, financial position, and currency confidence
    • Adding current terminal rate assumed by market to long/short-term yield spread of +0.25 to +0.75ppt, expect 10yr JGB yield range of 1.0% to 1.5% for now
  • Economic Commentary - Ueda speaks at Keidanren

    Economic Commentary - Ueda speaks at Keidanren

    26 December 2024 606 KB PDF
    • Steady progress toward achieving “price stability target” in 2024
    • Now monitoring economic policies of next US administration, spring 2025 labor-management wage talks
    • Wage hikes to take hold, BOJ to continue raising interest rates in 2025
    • Positive corporate behavior and realization of 2% price target will lead to increase in Japan’s growth potential
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Ueda’s Dec press conference

    Daiwa's Economic View - Ueda’s Dec press conference

    20 December 2024 448 KB PDF
    • Need to assess wages, US economy as reason for not hiking rates in Dec
    • Full picture for spring labor-management talks in Mar or April, can potentially grasp wage momentum even earlier
    • BOJ exploring possibility of raising rates within FY24, but has not decided on timing
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ; broad-perspective review of monetary policy

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ; broad-perspective review of monetary policy

    19 December 2024 609 KB PDF
    • BOJ decides to stand pat at Dec 2024 meeting, but board member Tamura proposes rate hike
    • In 2025, US rate cutting to slow, while BOJ rate hiking policy continues
    • Decision on additional interest rate hike likely in Jan-Mar, depending on wages, US economy
    • Historic broad-perspective review of monetary policy; implications for conduct of future monetary policy include ensuring of some room to maneuver
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Analysis of BoJ ahead of 2025

    Daiwa's Economic View - Analysis of BoJ ahead of 2025

    16 December 2024 522 KB PDF
    • BoJ in 2024: Implemented two interest rate hikes without delay; Trauma of summer 2024 market turmoil one reason why BoJ in no hurry to hike rates
    • Developments outside of Japan in 2024: US economy remains resilient; Prepare for market trend changes due to “Trump 2.0”
    • BoJ communicating more carefully, focus in Japan on wage hike sustainability 
    • BoJ likely to skip rate hike in Dec, target hike in Jan-Mar 2025, while monitoring conditions in US
  • Economic Commentary - Tankan analysis ahead of BoJ meeting

    Economic Commentary - Tankan analysis ahead of BoJ meeting

    13 December 2024 558 KB PDF
    • B0J is communicating carefully; Some support a Dec rate hike, but the bank staff are in no hurry and likely to hold off
    • BoJ considering a rate hike within FY24, but has yet to settle on timing
    • Tankan supports BoJ's view that domestic economy is on track No change in inflation expectations, companies continue passing on higher prices
    • Business sentiment better than expected; recurring profit has also improved from the last survey
  • Daiwa's View - Will there be a resurgence of speculative selling of the yen?

    Daiwa's View - Will there be a resurgence of speculative selling of the yen?

    11 December 2024 424 KB PDF
    • A substantial decline in volatility would be necessary
  • Daiwa's View - Timing of next BoJ rate hike

    Daiwa's View - Timing of next BoJ rate hike

    11 December 2024 329 KB PDF
    • Despite having free hand until March, main scenario is for January 2025 rate hike
    • BoJ must consider (a) avoiding head-on collision with the Fed, (b) restraining yen carry trades, and (c) timing of July Upper House election and its impact on formation of expectations for rate hike after next rate hike