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Daiwa's View
19 January 2024
444 KB
PDF
Market anomalies related to US presidential elections
After presidential elections, we tend to see a rise in stock prices and the USD/JPY rate, and a decline in the Dollar Index
When former President Donald Trump won in 2016, we saw a rise in stock prices, the USD/JPY rate, and the Dollar Index
If former President Donald Trump were to win this time, the reaction may be similar to that in 2016, but US economic trends should be monitored carefully
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Daiwa's View
15 January 2024
476 KB
PDF
New development of lower volatility → lower bond yields ➢ Fed staff comments in minutes for Dec FOMC meeting suggest unusual uncertainty since pandemic may be diminishing
Lower volatility → lower yields possible this year
Could be painful development for JGB investors who were waiting for yields to rise on BOJ policy revisions
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Daiwa's View
11 January 2024
415 KB
PDF
Consensus on the Fed’s QT (Dec 2023)
MBS balance expected to continue decreasing, even after halt to reduction in UST balance
QT expected to slow in spring 2024
Consensus is optimistic for economic conditions, assuming ample liquidity remaining
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Public Finance Watch
10 January 2024
329 KB
PDF
Noto earthquake to increase contingency reserve funds in FY24 budget bill, but no impact on calendar-based market issuance of JGBs
FY24 budget bill’s general contingency reserve fund increased to support areas hit by Noto Peninsula earthquake; new JGB issuance also increased
JGB issuance plan to be revised at same time, but calendar-based market issuance likely unchanged owing to use of front-loading issuance of refunding bonds
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Daiwa's View
5 January 2024
521 KB
PDF
Analysis of JGB term premiums
Expect increased interest in JGB term premiums if Japan transitions to “world with interest rates”
10yr JGB yield rise above 0.9% last year linked to sharp UST term premium rise, but currently unsustainable
Immediate target is pre-QQE “0.5% risk-neutral yield + 0.5% term premium ≈ 1%”; see 0.4% + 0.4% ≈ 0.8% as realistic target for a dip-buying
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Public Finance Watch
4 January 2024
530 KB
PDF
FY24 JGB issuance plan, draft budget, timing for issuing CT bonds
MOF plans to issue Y1.7tn in CT bonds with decisions on maturities/issuance timing expected around Mar; likely options are one issuance (Apr-Jun) or two (Apr-Jun + from Jul)
Calendar-based JGB market issuance plan cut by almost Y20tn; flowbased avg maturity has lengthened to about same level as before coronavirus
Draft budget supports public sector wage hikes; goal of returning spending to normal remains difficult due to many issues other than coronavirus; breaking from 30 years of deflation seen as essential
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