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Daiwa's Economic View - BoJ to put rate hike on hold this autumn
17 September 2024
713 KB
PDF
Japan weakened by heat waves, earthquakes, and typhoons in summer of 2024 Japan’s weaknesses: Low energy/food self-sufficiency, changing demographics
Paths Japan should take: Importance of fiscal soundness, promotion of energy policy Calls for “wise spending” ahead of LDP presidential election on 27 Sep Ishiba, Kono reviewing Abenomics, calling for monetary policy normalization
BoJ to put rate hike on hold this autumn; eyes on Governor Ueda’s press conference
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Politics Watch
13 September 2024
500 KB
PDF
LDP presidential election announced, campaigning underway; focus on economic, fiscal, and monetary policies
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Economic Commentary - Speech from BoJ Policy Board member Tamura
13 September 2024
541 KB
PDF
Hawkish Tamura corrected unintended impression of his March speech Wants monetary policy normalization, neutral interest rate of at least 1.0% Intends to proceed with gradual 25bp rate hikes by second half of projection period
Considers impact of short-term rate hike on households, businesses
Wage hike benefits vary by age group; spurring on economic metabolism
BOJ’s challenge is better communication with market
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Economic Commentary - Jul Monthly Labour Survey: Reflects big wage hikes from spring labor-management wage negotiations
5 September 2024
532 KB
PDF
Scheduled cash earnings (common data set, full-time employees) up 3.0%Y/Y; confirmed reflection of big wage hikes from spring negotiations, summer bonuses also strong
Various wage statistics also pin cash earnings at around up 3.0%Y/Y; increased likelihood of virtuous wage-price cycle, seen as catalyst supporting BOJ rate hikes
Still, observed wage situation alone not enough to determine whether rates should be hiked; also need to check economic, political, financial, and capital market trends, both domestic and overseas
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Daiwa's View
23 August 2024
424 KB
PDF
JPY weakness not justified by real demand
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Daiwa's Economic View
23 August 2024
432 KB
PDF
Prospects for general election, budget compilation after LDP presidential election and implications for monetary policy
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Daiwa's Economic View
19 August 2024
501 KB
PDF
Apr-Jun 2024 real GDP improves, but weak underlying trend for private consumption
Economy expected to grow only moderately in FY24 as consumers remain thrifty, but inflation likely to hold near BoJ’s 2% price stability target
Next rate hike expected in Mar 2025, after assessing domestic/international economic conditions and results of 2025 spring labor-management wage negotiations
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Daiwa's View
13 August 2024
461 KB
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Revising FX forecasts: Yen carry trade collapses
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