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  • Daiwa's Economic View - Considering next rate hike following press conferences by Ueda, Takaichi

    Daiwa's Economic View - Considering next rate hike following press conferences by Ueda, Takaichi

    6 October 2025 515 KB PDF
    • BOJ Governor Ueda could be most dovish board member following dovish press conference
    • Political factors could delay rate hikes; key point for government/BOJ is confidence in stable growth path even amid tariffs
    • Domestic economy/prices: Conditions warranting early rate hike
    • Expect next rate hike within this year; still see 1% as terminal rate for rate hikes
  • Daiwa's Economic View - Fiscal policy of new Takaichi administration and its impact on JGB market

    Daiwa's Economic View - Fiscal policy of new Takaichi administration and its impact on JGB market

    6 October 2025 400 KB PDF
    • Takaichi pulled off a surprise victory, becoming the new LDP President, but she will likely follow a realistic and moderate path regarding fiscal policy
    • Fiscal spending in FY25 supplementary budget estimated to be around Y16-18tn; scale of calendar-based market issuance could remain flat y/y, or see a slight increase
    • In the medium to long term, fiscal policy and JGB issuance are expected to be influenced by expansion of the ruling coalition, easing of cost-push inflation, and success or failure of growth investments
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Governor's speech: Views unchanged from Sep MPM

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Governor's speech: Views unchanged from Sep MPM

    3 October 2025 429 KB PDF
    • More constructive view of Japanese economy
    • Focusing on US uncertainty, as at Sep MPM; cautious about near-term rate hike
    • Growing sense that Japanese economy on track to achieve BOJ forecasts; changing balance of views among policy board members makes shift in communication more likely
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ’s Summary of Opinions from Sep meeting: Board member balance tilting toward hiking rates

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ’s Summary of Opinions from Sep meeting: Board member balance tilting toward hiking rates

    1 October 2025 547 KB PDF
    • Economic developments: Emphasis on assessing state of US economy
    • Prices: Growing concerns about upside risks
    • Next rate hike expected in Oct-Dec 2025, followed by another in Jul-Sep 2026
  • Daiwa's View - Benefits vs costs of waiting: Re-examining December rate-hike argument

    Daiwa's View - Benefits vs costs of waiting: Re-examining December rate-hike argument

    1 October 2025 367 KB PDF
    • Building momentum for Oct rate hike; want to maintain balanced perspective by deliberately examining benefits of waiting until Dec
    • While Dec argument has at least five benefits, none are decisive in this case
    • High likelihood of additional rate hike (to 0.75%) decided at Oct MPM provided upbeat Tankan, hearings; additional speech by BOJ Deputy Gov Himino announced on 30 Sep (slated for 21 Oct) likely another step toward improving BOJ communication regarding interest rate hikes
  • Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Tankan September survey: Uncertainty eases

    Daiwa's Economic View - BOJ Tankan September survey: Uncertainty eases

    1 October 2025 525 KB PDF
    • Major improvement in corporate sentiment/earnings
    • Strong capex appetite, uncertainty easing
    • Inflation also more likely to reach 2% target