London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2025

2024

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    31 March 2025 284 KB PDF
    • While the flash estimate of German inflation in March fell a little further than anticipated, Bunds made losses at the short end as German retail sales data beat expectations and a Bloomberg report suggested that more ECB officials are ready to pause rates in April.  
    • Gilts followed USTs higher as UK mortgage lending and approvals remained firm ahead of April’s increases in stamp duty.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    28 March 2025 441 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as flash estimates of French and Spanish inflation surprised to the downside and the Commission economic sentiment index fell to a three-month low to suggest minimal growth in Q1.
    • Despite an upside surprise to UK retail sales in February, Gilts followed USTs higher.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    28 March 2025 384 KB PDF
    • February inflation: sticky, but tariffs not yet a factor
    • A complication for the Fed: potential indirect effects from tariffs
    • An update on Q1 growth: sub-one-percent GDP?
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    27 March 2025 354 KB PDF
    • While euro area bank lending growth continued to recover, Bunds made gains particularly at the short end as markets took stock of yesterday’s announcement of new US tariffs on the autos sector.
    • While the UK government suggested that it would not take retaliatory action against US auto tariffs, Gilts made losses at the longer end as markets continued to take stock of yesterday’s fiscal policy announcements.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    27 March 2025 240 KB PDF
    • Revised Q4 GDP: modest shifts among components; inflation slower; GDI suggests firm performance
    • International trade in goods: tariff front-running distorts the early 2025 data
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    26 March 2025 314 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains at the short end of the curve while French consumer confidence dipped on the more uncertain economic outlook.
    • Gilts made gains across the curve as UK inflation came in below the market consensus while the DMO’s gilt financing remit for the coming fiscal year also undershot market expectations and the UK government confirmed plans for public spending cuts over the coming parliament.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    25 March 2025 324 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as the German ifo survey signalled a likely return to modestly positive GDP growth in Q1 and greater optimism about the near-term outlook.
    • Ahead of the Chancellor’s Spring Statement on Wednesday that will likely confirm increased issuance in the coming fiscal year, Gilts made losses despite a deterioration in a UK retail survey.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    25 March 2025 258 KB PDF
    • New home sales: activity picks up in February; prices move lower; inventories elevated
    • Consumer confidence: fourth consecutive decline; expectations slump