London & NY Research

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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2026

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    8 May 2026 385 KB PDF
    • While German IP data disappointed expectations, Bunds were little changed as ECB Governing Council members reminded that a rate hike will be under discussion at the next monetary policy meeting in June.
    • Gilts made gains as UK Prime Minister Starmer insisted he has no intention of resigning despite a predictably poor showing by his Labour party in elections in England, Wales and Scotland.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    7 May 2026 357 KB PDF
    • Bunds ended the day little changed while German factory orders beat expectations but euro area retail sales volumes softened and the construction PMIs flagged downside risks to near-term growth.
    • As markets await the outcome of today’s local elections in England and national parliament elections in Scotland and Wales, Gilts also made very modest gains as the UK construction PMIs pointed to a slump in activity.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    6 May 2026 332 KB PDF
    • While euro area producer prices rose the most since mid-2022 and the PMIs pointed to more intense cost pressures, Bunds followed the global trend higher as oil prices fell on hopes of a US-Iran deal.
    • Gilts also made gains despite signals from the final UK PMIs of a pickup in growth momentum and higher business costs at the start of Q2.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    5 May 2026 202 KB PDF
    • ISM services: dip in composite led by sizable decline in new orders, though still indicating expansion for the 22nd consecutive month; prices remain elevated
  • US Economic Weekly

    US Economic Weekly

    1 May 2026 436 KB PDF
    • Updated Fed call: given recent moves in consumer price metrics, along with heightened uncertainty regarding the inflation outlook, we have pushed back projected rate cuts to late 2026 and the first half of 2027
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    30 April 2026 478 KB PDF
    • While ECB President Lagarde hinted at a rate hike as soon as the June meeting, Bunds made gains as the oil price fell, euro area core inflation moderated and Q1 GDP undershot expectations. 
    • Gilts also followed the global trend higher, as the BoE ‘actively’ held interest rates, reflecting hopes of some members of the MPC that hikes might not be required given the tightening of financial conditions over recent weeks.  
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    30 April 2026 273 KB PDF
    • GDP: solid growth in 26-Q1 led by consumer spending and capex; data yet to reflect the full force of spike in energy prices
    • March inflation: surge in headline led by energy prices; core stuck above 3 percent
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    29 April 2026 333 KB PDF
    • While German inflation was slightly softer than expected and the Commission sentiment indices slumped in April, Bunds made losses as consumer and business price expectations rose to multi-year highs.
    • Gilts followed the global trend lower on a quiet day for UK economic news.