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    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

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    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

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    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2026

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    30 March 2026 346 KB PDF
    • While German HICP inflation jumped to a 14-month high on fuel price pressures, Bunds made gains in line with the global trend.  
    • Gilts also made gains but underperformed as UK bank lending data firmed.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    27 March 2026 360 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains at the short end but losses at the long end of the curve, while the impact of the spike in wholesale energy prices was evident in Spanish inflation, which jumped to the highest since mid-2024.
    • Gilts were also mixed today as UK consumer confidence deteriorated in March, but retail sales were on track for solid growth in Q1 ahead of the war.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    27 March 2026 415 KB PDF
    • Updated U.S. economic outlook: growth on track (for now), although downside risks have intensified on account of conflict in the Middle East
    • Inflation: higher in 2026 than previous anticipated
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    26 March 2026 285 KB PDF
    • European govvies made notable losses as various national surveys signalled a jump in consumer price expectations in March.
    • Gilts followed the global trend lower, while comments from BoE Deputy Governor Breeden suggested she could vote for either unchanged policy or an increase in rates in April, but uber-dove Taylor suggested the bar for a hike was high.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    25 March 2026 383 KB PDF
    • While ECB policymakers reinforced that the April and June Governing Council meetings were live for a rate hike, Bunds followed the global trend higher.
    • Gilts made larger gains as UK inflation held steady ahead of the war, with services, food and energy components easing.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    24 March 2026 325 KB PDF
    • While the flash euro area composite PMI fell to a 10-month low as services stagnated, shorter-dated Bunds made notable losses as the surge in wholesale energy prices was evident in the manufacturing input price index.
    • Gilts also closed lower as the flash UK PMIs similarly pointed to substantially higher input prices and BoE Chief Economist Pill noted his readiness to respond to such pressures.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    20 March 2026 456 KB PDF
    • The global bond sell-off continued, with 10Y Bund yields rising above 3% for the first time since 2011, as investors fully priced three ECB rate hikes in 2026.
    • Gilts again underperformed, with 10Y yields rising above 5% for the first time since 2008, as UK public finance data disappointed.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    20 March 2026 376 KB PDF
    • The March FOMC meeting: Committee currently on hold; rate hikes in near future not the “base case” for most officials; current forecasts carry little weight given acute uncertainty stemming from Middle East crisis, but a low probability of 70’s-style stagflation
    • Update on dual-mandate objectives: PCE price index to record firm increase in February, which suggests the need for patience, especially as labor market viewed to be existing in low-hire/low-fire equilibrium