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2023

2022

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  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    27 January 2023 357 KB PDF
    • Despite some softer euro area bank lending figures and a downbeat French consumer survey, Bunds fell as Spanish Q4 GDP beat expectations and markets looked ahead to next week’s ECB policy announcements. 
    • Gilts also made losses on a quiet end to the week for UK economic news, as attention turned to the BoE policy decision and updated forecasts due on Thursday.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    26 January 2023 245 KB PDF
    • GDP: firm in Q4, but questions about sustainability
    • Durables: Aircraft led jump in December International trade in goods: both sides of trade ledger contribute to deficit slippage
    • New home sales: sideways movement at a low level in 22-H2
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    25 January 2023 265 KB PDF
    • Bunds ended the day little changed, even as the German ifo business survey implied a gradual recovery over coming quarters, and further ECB Governing Council members called for at least two further hikes of 50bps.  
    • Longer-dated Gilts made modest gains as UK producer input prices declined the most since April 2020, while services PPI inflation fell back too.
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    24 January 2023 490 KB PDF
    • While the flash euro area PMIs pointed to further stabilisation of economic activity and some continued pressures on output prices at the start of 2023, Bunds made gains as Bank of France Governor Villeroy said that inflation will likely be back at the 2% target by the end of 2024 or early 2025.
    • Gilts outperformed as the flash UK PMIs suggested the steepest pace of contraction in two years as well as moderating input cost and output price pressures. 
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    20 January 2023 527 KB PDF
    • While German producer prices fell for a third successive month, euro area government bonds made big losses as President Lagarde repeated that the ECB intends to “stay the course” on monetary tightening.
    • Gilts also made losses despite an unexpected decline in UK retail sales and a renewed decline in consumer confidence.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    20 January 2023 155 KB PDF
    • Existing home sales: down for the 11th consecutive month; below the pandemic-low
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    20 January 2023 306 KB PDF
    • Tight monetary policy begins to bite
    • A defense for the debt ceiling
  • Euro Wrap-up

    Euro Wrap-up

    19 January 2023 399 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as the ECB’s account of its December policy meeting confirmed that a large number of Governing Council members had initially preferred a 75bps rate hike, while Lagarde invited the markets to revise up their pricing of the future path of ECB rates.
    • Gilts made modest gains as BoE Governor Bailey noted that inflation is likely to fall rapidly thanks to lower energy prices, while a UK survey signalled a marked weakening in the housing market.