London & NY Research

  • JAPAN

    Daiwa Europe’s market-leading research on the Japanese economy.

  • EUROPE

    Daiwa’s research coverage of the euro area and UK economies.

  • US

    Daiwa’s coverage of the US economy from our colleagues in New York

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2024

2023

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  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    24 September 2024 242 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the ifo survey signalled an increasing likelihood that the German economy contracted in Q3, with current conditions judged to be the worst in more than four years.
    • Gilts made modest losses on a quiet day for UK economic news.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    23 September 2024 274 KB PDF
    • Bunds made gains as the flash euro area composite PMI fell more than expected in September, signalling for the first time in seven months that the economy is contracting.
    • Gilts followed USTs lower, while the flash UK PMIs implied ongoing moderate expansion in Q3 despite edging lower in September.
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    20 September 2024 307 KB PDF
    • Bunds made losses as euro area consumer confidence rose to a 2½-year high and French business sentiment also improved.
    • Despite a significant deterioration in UK consumer confidence, Gilts also followed the global trend lower as retail sales grew above expectations.
  • US Economic Comment

    US Economic Comment

    20 September 2024 360 KB PDF
    • Updated Fed call: an additional 50 basis points in cuts in 2024; neutral policy achieved by year-end 2025
    • The balance of risks: developments in the labor market (and inflation?) may ultimately demand more aggressive cuts
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    19 September 2024 238 KB PDF
    • Gilts made losses as the BoE left rates unchanged but signalled gradual cuts ahead, while the MPC agreed to continue QT at the same annual pace of £100bn, implying fewer active Gilt sales.
    • Shorter-dated Bunds followed USTs higher, while euro area new car registrations fell sharply in August.
  • US Data Review

    US Data Review

    19 September 2024 236 KB PDF
    • Unemployment claims: both initial and continuing claims declined
    • Existing home sales: activity mired in the low end of the long-term range
  • Euro wrap-up

    Euro wrap-up

    18 September 2024 312 KB PDF
    • Ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement, Bunds followed the global trend lower while the final estimates of euro area inflation in August confirmed that the uptick in the services component was related to a likely-temporary boost to transport fares.
    • Gilts also made losses, while UK inflation aligned with market expectations but undershot the BoE’s projections.
  • US FOMC Review

    US FOMC Review

    18 September 2024 280 KB PDF
    • FOMC: pivot to lower rates initiated with a cut of 50 basis points
    • The September SEP: moderate growth; expectations for inflation adjusted lower; higher near-term unemployment versus June projections